Match Analysis: San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: CEFCU Stadium
Game Overview
San Jose State Spartans (3-5, 2-2 Mountain West) host Air Force Falcons (2-6, 1-4 Mountain West) in a pivotal Mountain West Conference matchup. Both teams are trending below .500, but San Jose State has shown more offensive consistency and recent form, while Air Force struggles with scoring and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose State averages 31.7 points per game and recently beat Hawaii 45-38 as a 2.5-point favorite, covering the spread. Air Force averages just 21.3 points per game and has lost five of their last six, including blowouts to stronger MWC teams. San Jose Stateβs offense is more explosive and balanced, while Air Force relies heavily on the run and struggles to keep pace in shootouts.
- San Jose State holds a slight edge in recent matchups, winning 3 of the last 5 meetings. The last meeting was a 31-28 SJSU win, indicating close but competitive games.
- No major injuries reported for either team, but Air Forceβs offensive line has been inconsistent, leading to poor rushing efficiency and increased pressure on their QB.
- Game is played at CEFCU Stadium, where San Jose State has a 2-2 home record. Weather is expected to be clear, favoring passing offenses. Air Forceβs travel and altitude adjustment are not significant factors.
- San Jose State is fighting for bowl eligibility and a winning conference record, while Air Force is out of contention and likely playing for pride. SJSUβs motivation is higher, especially after a recent win over Hawaii.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -218, away: 180 | San Jose State Spartans | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: -5.5 -110, away: +5.5 -110 | San Jose State Spartans -5.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 65.5 -115, under: 65.5 -105 | Over 65.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 65.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 65.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose State wins and covers the spread, with the game going over the total. SJSUβs offense is too potent for Air Forceβs struggling defense, and Air Forceβs inability to score consistently will be exposed.
Predicted Score: San Jose State 38, Air Force 31