Match Analysis: San Jose State Spartans vs Air Force Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
Game Overview
San Jose State Spartans (3-5) will host the Air Force Falcons (2-6) on November 8, 2025, in Mountain West Conference action. The Spartans enter with one of the best passing offenses nationally but a weaker rushing attack and defense. Air Force boasts a strong rushing offense but struggles defensively, allowing high points recently. San Jose State is favored by 5.5 points, and the total game expected points are set at 67.5, reflecting anticipated offensive firepower and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose State leads in passing yards (ranked 1st with 332.9 avg yards/game) but has a poor rush defense (ranked 136th in pass yards against) and allows 30.4 points per game. Air Force has an elite rushing attack but a weak overall record and defense that has conceded 34+ points in recent games, struggling with pass defense and overall points allowed.
- Recent specific head-to-head data for this matchup is limited, but both teams have comparable overall and conference records (San Jose State at 3-5, Air Force at 2-6). Both teams have shown inconsistent performances this season. San Jose State has a slight home advantage playing at CEFCU Stadium.
- No explicit data on injuries is available for either team in the provided sources, suggesting no major reported injuries impacting key players as of current information.
- Game will be played at San Jose State's home stadium, which is a tangible advantage. Weather and other external conditions are not detailed but considering location and time, no significant environmental concerns are noted.
- San Jose State will seek to improve their Mountain West standing and capitalize on home field advantage. Air Force aims to turn around a disappointing season and rely on their rushing strength to challenge San Jose State. Both teams have motivation to avoid further losses and build momentum late in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans: -230, Air Force Falcons: +190 | San Jose State Spartans | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans: -5.5 -110, Air Force Falcons: +5.5 -110 | San Jose State Spartans -5.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 67.5 -108, Under: 67.5 -112 | Over 67.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 67.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 67.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose State Spartans to win by covering the 5.5-point spread, leveraging their superior passing offense and home-field advantage. Expect a moderately high scoring game leaning over the total due to defensive weaknesses on both sides.
Predicted Score: San Jose State Spartans 35 – Air Force Falcons 27