Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs Colorado State Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Game Overview
San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) face Colorado State Rams (1-3) in a Mountain West Conference matchup with San Diego State as clear favorites at home. The line is around San Diego State -6 with a total near 40.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State has a strong defense allowing less than 10 points per game and an efficient ground attack, winning their last game 6-3. Colorado State struggles offensively, averaging just over 15 points while allowing 23 points per game, recently suffering a 20-3 loss to Washington State.
- Recent head-to-head matchups favor San Diego State's defensive dominance. Market movement suggests steady support for SDSU with no significant line changes despite Colorado State's recent poor performance.
- No major injury reports significantly impacting either teamβs starting lineup have been observed.
- Game played at San Diego Stateβs home stadium, providing a robust home-field advantage. Public and sharp money align favorably toward San Diego State.
- San Diego State aims to solidify their winning record and maintain conference superiority, while Colorado State seeks to rebound from a poor start and last game shutout but might lack confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -240, away: +195 | San Diego State | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | home: -122, away: +100 | San Diego State -5.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | over: -112, under: -108 | Under 40.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 40.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 40.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State to win straight up with a moderate margin, and the total points to go under 40.5 based on defensive strengths and recent low scoring games.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 17 – Colorado State 10