Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs California Golden Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Game Overview
The California Golden Bears enter this matchup undefeated at 3-0 and are heavy favorites against the San Diego State Aztecs, who have a 1-1 record. California has shown a strong offense and defense, while San Diego State has been inconsistent, especially on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- California is undefeated this season with strong offensive output, averaging over 30 points per game, whereas San Diego State has split 1-1 and struggled with scoring consistency. Cal's defense has also been stout allowing fewer points than San Diego State.
- Recent head-to-head encounters heavily favor California, who have dominated the matchups both straight up and against the spread.
- No major injuries reported for either team impacting starting lineups significantly, giving both squads near full strength.
- The game is played at San Diegoβs home stadium which could provide a minor home field advantage to the Aztecs, but crowd impact may be mitigated by Californiaβs superior team quality.
- California is motivated to maintain their undefeated status and prove dominance in the conference, while San Diego State aims to even out their record and avoid an opening road loss margin.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | California Golden Bears: -485, San Diego State Aztecs: +370 | California Golden Bears | β β β β β 81% |
Spread | California Golden Bears -12.5: -110, San Diego State Aztecs +12.5: -110 | California Golden Bears -12.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Over/under | Over 47.5: -112, Under 47.5: -108 | Under 47.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 47.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 47.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on California Golden Bears moneyline for the highest EV, given their strong season start, dominant head-to-head history, and the wide odds value presented.
Predicted Score: California Golden Bears 31, San Diego State Aztecs 16