Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs Boise State Broncos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The San Diego State Aztecs (7-2) face the Boise State Broncos (6-3) in a Mountain West Conference clash with significant implications for the conference race. Both teams exhibit strong passing defenses, ranked 11th and 12th nationally respectively, promising a defensive battle with controlled offensive production. The game is expected to be close, with the Aztecs favored to win at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State shows a robust defensive record, allowing only 13.1 points per game (2nd nationally), contrasting with Boise State's 24.0 points allowed (59th nationally). Offensively, Boise State averages 32.1 points per game, outperforming San Diego Stateโs 26.3 points, but Boise State struggles more with turnovers (14 allowed) compared to San Diego State (10). The Aztecs have covered the spread 7 out of 9 times, while Boise State is 6-2-1 ATS this season.
- Boise State holds a 6-4 series advantage historically and won the last meeting 56-24 at home. However, San Diego State is a 3-point favorite this time playing at home, with home-field advantage potentially impacting results. San Diego Stateโs lone San Diego victory over Boise State was in 2013.
- No specific injury updates were provided in the available data, but Boise Stateโs quarterback uncertainty has been noted following recent losses, potentially impacting offensive consistency.
- The game will be played at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, with Boise State coming off a bye week, possibly rested. San Diego State is motivated to secure hosting rights for the Mountain West championship game on December 5.
- Both teams have strong motivation, but San Diego State aims to maintain conference dominance and improve postseason positioning, while Boise State looks to overcome prior losses and sustain its strong conference play record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs: -142, Boise State Broncos: +120 | San Diego State Aztecs | โ โ โ โโ 62% |
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs: -2.5 (-122), Boise State Broncos: +2.5 (100) | San Diego State Aztecs -2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 41.5: -104, Under 41.5: -118 | Under 41.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 41.5 7% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 41.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State Aztecs are predicted to win a closely contested game, leveraging superior defense and home advantage, with a final score around 24-20.
Predicted Score: San Diego State Aztecs 24, Boise State Broncos 20