Match Analysis: Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Rice Stadium, Houston, Texas
Game Overview
The Rice Owls (5-5) host the No. 22 North Texas Mean Green (9-1) in a pivotal AAC matchup. North Texas is heavily favored, with the spread set at -18.5 and the over/under at 55.5 points. The game will be televised on ESPNU and streamed on Fubo. Both teams are motivated by conference standings and bowl eligibility, with North Texas aiming for a conference title and Rice seeking a winning season.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas has won 9 of 10 games, including 4 straight, and boasts a high-powered offense led by Drew Mestemaker (69.3% completion, 3,000 yards, 23 TDs). Rice has split its last 10 games, averaging 47.7 points per game overall, but has struggled defensively, especially against ranked opponents. North Texas has covered the spread in 7 straight games against non-ranked teams, while Rice has failed to cover in 5 of its last 6 games as an underdog against Texas teams.
- North Texas has won 9 straight games against non-AP-ranked teams and has dominated Rice in recent meetings, winning the last 4 matchups. Rice has lost each of its last 4 games against AP-ranked teams. The underdog has won 3 of North Texasโ last 4 games at Rice Stadium, but North Texas has covered the spread in each of its last 7 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their starting lineups.
- The game will be played at Rice Stadium, which has a history of upsets, but North Texas has a strong road record and has won the first quarter in 7 of its last 8 conference games. Weather is expected to be clear with mild temperatures, favoring offensive play.
- North Texas is chasing a conference title and a potential New Year's Six bowl berth, while Rice is seeking a winning season and bowl eligibility. Both teams are highly motivated, but North Texas has more at stake with its national ranking.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green: -1200, Rice Owls: 750 | North Texas Mean Green | Not available |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green: -18.5, Rice Owls: 18.5 | North Texas Mean Green -18.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 55.5, under: 55.5 | Over 55.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 55.5 52% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 52% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 54.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas is expected to win decisively, but Rice may keep the game competitive early. The over/under is likely to be hit due to both teams' offensive capabilities and recent trends. North Texas is favored to cover the spread, but Rice has shown resilience at home.
Predicted Score: North Texas 38, Rice 24