Match Analysis: Purdue Boilermakers vs Southern Illinois Salukis – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 11:35 PM UTC
- Location: Ross–Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Game Overview
Purdue Boilermakers, a strong FBS program, host Southern Illinois Salukis, an FCS team struggling with only 3 wins in last 17 games. The last and only meeting was in 2014, where Purdue dominated 35-13. Purdue's offense is significantly more productive, and Southern Illinois has a poor recent record overall but performs better ATS on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Purdue has a much stronger recent performance with a more balanced and productive offense, averaging 35 points in their last meeting versus Southern Illinois' 13. Southern Illinois is 3-14 SU in last 17 games but 4-1 ATS on the road, indicating some value against the spread away.
- Only one previous meeting in 2014 with Purdue winning decisively 35-13. Purdue also leads ATS and O/U in that game.
- No significant injury reports found for either team that would drastically impact the outcome.
- Game at home favors Purdue, a Big Ten program, against an FCS opponent. Weather or travel issues are unlikely to play a big role given Purdue's home advantage and Southern Illinois’ road experience.
- Purdue likely motivated as a high-profile FBS team opening their season against an FCS opponent, aiming to assert dominance. Southern Illinois motivated to prove competitiveness but has not shown strong form recently.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Purdue: -1250, Southern Illinois: 740 | Purdue Boilermakers | ★★★★☆ 88% |
Spread | Purdue -19.5: -110, Southern Illinois +19.5: -110 | Purdue Boilermakers -19.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 51.5: -110, Under 51.5: -110 | Under 51.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 51.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Purdue Boilermakers moneyline and covering the -19.5 spread with total points going under 51.5
Predicted Score: Purdue 31 – Southern Illinois 10