Match Analysis: Purdue Boilermakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ross-Ade Stadium
Game Overview
Ohio State, ranked No. 1 and undefeated at 8-0 (5-0 Big Ten), travels to face a struggling Purdue team (2-7, 0-6 Big Ten) at Ross-Ade Stadium. The Buckeyes are heavy favorites, with a spread of -29.5 and a total set at 48.5 points. Purdue has not won since Week 2 and is coming off seven consecutive losses, while Ohio State has won eight straight, including a 45-0 shutout of Purdue last season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio State is dominant, averaging over 40 points per game and allowing under 15. Purdue is one of the worst offenses in the conference, averaging just 16 points per game and surrendering over 30. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents by an average of 25+ points per game, while Purdue has lost by double digits in five of their last six games.
- Ohio State leads the all-time series 42-15-2 and has won the last three meetings, including a 45-0 shutout last season. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in each of the last three matchups.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Ohio Stateβs depth and talent advantage is significant, especially on defense.
- Ohio State is playing for a playoff spot and national title contention, while Purdue is out of contention and facing a rebuilding season. Weather is expected to be mild, with no impact on play.
- Ohio State is highly motivated to maintain its undefeated record and playoff hopes. Purdue is playing for pride, but morale is low after a seven-game losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 3000, away: -10000 | Ohio State Buckeyes | β β β β β 98% |
| Spread | home: 29.5 -105, away: -29.5 -115 | Ohio State Buckeyes -29.5 | β β β β β 82% |
| Over/under | over: 48.5 -105, under: 48.5 -115 | Over 48.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State will dominate Purdue in all phases, covering the spread and pushing the game over the total. The Buckeyesβ offensive firepower and defensive strength will overwhelm Purdue, who lacks the talent and momentum to compete.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 42, Purdue 10