Match Analysis: Purdue Boilermakers vs Ball State Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
Game Overview
The Purdue Boilermakers, heavy favorites after a disappointing 1-11 season last year, host the Ball State Cardinals, who went 3-9. Purdue is favored by 17.5 points with a total of 49.5 set on the game. Both teams struggled defensively last season, contributing to a moderately high total point line.
Key Factors to Consider
- Purdue had a poor season scoring 15.8 points/game while allowing 39.9; Ball State scored 25.3 but allowed 40.1. Purdue's offense led by QB Hudson Card showed limited efficiency but has depth. Ball State's ground game was weak last year with 1.6 yds/carry and poor rush defense.
- Ball State managed to cover the spread in recent encounters but struggled to win outright. Purdue's home advantage and deeper roster tilt the balance heavily toward the Boilermakers.
- No significant injury reports for key starters on either team have been indicated leading up to the game.
- Game played at Purdue's home stadium with favorable weather (68Β°F, low wind, no rain) and strong home crowd support.
- Purdue looks to rebound strongly after a poor prior season on home turf; Ball State seeks an upset but faces a rigid Big Ten defense. Motivational advantage favors Purdue.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -850, away: +575 | Purdue Boilermakers | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | Purdue Boilermakers -17.5 | β β β β β 80% |
Over/under | over: -108, under: -112 | Under 49.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Purdue Boilermakers to win straight up and cover the -17.5 spread; game to finish under 49.5 total points
Predicted Score: Purdue 27 – Ball State 7