Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Acrisure Stadium
Game Overview
Week 9 NFL matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts at Acrisure Stadium. The Colts enter as favorites, with the spread set at -3 and a high over/under of 50.5, indicating expectations of a high-scoring, competitive game.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Colts have shown strong offensive consistency and improved defense in recent weeks, ranking among the top in scoring and yards per game. The Steelers have struggled defensively, allowing over 24 points per game in their last five matchups, but remain potent offensively with a balanced attack.
- The Colts lead the recent series, winning 3 of the last 5 meetings. However, the Steelers have won the last two home matchups, both by narrow margins.
- The Steelers are missing key defensive starters, including their starting cornerback and linebacker, weakening their pass defense. The Colts have a mostly healthy roster, with only minor depth concerns.
- The game will be played in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers typically enjoy a strong home-field advantage, especially in November. Weather is expected to be mild with no precipitation, favoring offensive play.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning. The Colts are aiming to solidify their status as AFC contenders, while the Steelers are desperate to avoid falling further behind in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 140, away: -166 | Indianapolis Colts | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | home: 3 -105, away: -3 -115 | Indianapolis Colts -3 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 50.5 -118, under: 50.5 -102 | Over 50.5 | β β β β β 76% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 50.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Colts are favored for good reason, but the Steelers' home-field edge and recent head-to-head success suggest a close game. The Colts' superior defense and offensive firepower should be enough to cover the spread and push the total over, but the Steelers will keep it competitive.
Predicted Score: 31-27