Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Panthers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) travel to Pittsburgh to face the No. 22 Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) in a marquee ACC matchup that will be featured on College GameDay. Both teams enter with identical records, but Notre Dame is a heavy favorite despite playing on the road. Pittsburgh has been one of the hottest teams in college football, winning five consecutive games and covering the spread in all five contests, which has vaulted them into playoff consideration. However, Notre Dame just dominated Navy 49-10 and features the 18th-ranked scoring defense in the nation. This contest carries significant implications for both teams' playoff aspirations, particularly for Pittsburgh, who would need to run the table against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Miami to secure an ACC title and playoff berth.
Key Factors to Consider
- Notre Dame has compiled a 4-5-0 record against the spread this season, while Pittsburgh has been exceptional ATS with a 7-2-0 record. Pittsburgh ranks 6th in scoring offense (averaging over 30 points per game in their win streak), while Notre Dame boasts the 18th-ranked scoring defense. Both teams feature elite rush defenses, with Notre Dame ranked 14th nationally and Pittsburgh ranked 3rd. Notre Dame's offensive identity centers on running back Jeremiah Love, whose ground-focused approach leads to longer drives and fewer possessions for opponents. Pittsburgh's recent success has made them a public darling, but the market still respects Notre Dame's overall strength.
- Notre Dame has dominated the recent series against Pittsburgh, winning by a combined score of 103-10 in their last two meetings since 2020. However, Pittsburgh has historically been a thorn in Notre Dame's side during certain seasons. The Panthers are seeking to end this recent dominance and prove they belong among the nation's elite teams.
- No significant injury information is available in the provided data.
- College GameDay will be on location for this noon ET kickoff, indicating the significance of this matchup to the college football landscape. The game will be broadcast on ABC, providing national exposure. Both teams are in the playoff conversation, which adds urgency and motivation to the contest.
- Pittsburgh is highly motivated after a five-game winning streak and genuine playoff hopes. The Panthers need to continue winning to validate their season and potentially secure a berth in the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame, despite their pedigree, is motivated to maintain their status as a top-10 program and avoid an upset loss on the road against an increasingly dangerous opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame -480, Pittsburgh +370 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 77-80% |
| Spread | Notre Dame -11.5 (-114), Pittsburgh +11.5 (-106) | Notre Dame -11.5 | 72-75% |
| Over/under | Over 55.5 (-108), Under 55.5 (-112) | Under 55.5 | 68-70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Notre Dame is favored for strong reasons: they possess a superior defense, have dominated Pittsburgh recently, and their running game should control the tempo and limit Pittsburgh's explosive offensive opportunities. However, Pittsburgh's recent form and strong rushing defense present legitimate challenges. Notre Dame's defense should ultimately prevail in limiting the Panthers' scoring while the Irish's ground attack grinds out a methodical victory. The key variable is whether Pittsburgh can generate explosive plays to overcome Notre Dame's defensive prowess and methodical offensive approach.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 32, Pittsburgh 26 (Under 55.5)