Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Panthers vs NC State Wolfpack – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Panthers (5-2) host the NC State Wolfpack (4-3) in an Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) matchup. Pittsburgh has shown strong form recently with three consecutive wins since a QB change and a top-tier defense, especially against the run. NC State, a run-heavy team, faces a defense superior in rushing yards allowed nationally. Both teams are motivated and well-embedded in ACC competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last 5 games and 4-1 ATS, with a dominant rush defense (4th nationally allowing 82.4 ypg). NC State has a moderate 4-3 record, struggling on the road with 5 losses in last 6 October away games and lower rushing success (82nd nationally).
- Recent Pittsburgh dominance at home against NC State, with favorites covering the spread in last four home games. NC State struggles to cover the spread on the road in ACC games.
- No major injury reports affect key starters on either side; Pittsburgh QB stable since change, while NC State relies on QB CJ Bailey who is turnover prone.
- Clear weather at 54Β°F expected with no rain or wind, played at neutral-for-NC State home advantage for Pittsburgh. Special teams edge favors Pittsburgh.
- Pittsburgh aims to extend October winning streak and reinforce ACC standing; NC State seeks an upset as underdog but has shown inconsistency outside home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh -230, NC State +190 | Pittsburgh Panthers | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh -6.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | Over 56.5 (-108), Under 56.5 (-112) | Over 56.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 56.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 56.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pittsburgh Panthers to win outright on the moneyline, cover the 6.5 point spread, and for the total points to go over 56.5 based on strong offensive form and defensive advantages.
Predicted Score: Pittsburgh Panthers 35 – 21 NC State Wolfpack