Match Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Nebraska Cornhuskers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Game Overview
Penn State (4-6) hosts Nebraska (7-3) in a Big Ten matchup at Beaver Stadium. Penn State enters as a 7.5-8.5 point home favorite despite their disappointing 4-6 record, while Nebraska brings a stronger 7-3 record as the visiting underdog. The moneyline odds show Penn State favored at -305 with Nebraska at +245. This matchup features contrasting trajectories: Nebraska has alternated wins and losses in recent games and is tied for sixth in Big Ten standings, while Penn State seeks to capitalize on their home-field advantage but has struggled with consistency this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Penn State averages 30.4 points per game (53rd in nation) while allowing 21.1 points per game (35th defensively). Nebraska offensively scores 32.5 points per game (38th) with stronger defensive performance, allowing only 19.9 points per game (25th nationally). Penn State has turned the ball over 10 times (25th) while Nebraska has turned it over 9 times (13th). Both teams force turnovers at identical rates (71st). Penn State has gone 2-3 in their last 5 games and 1-4 against the spread in that span, while Nebraska has alternated wins and losses over their last five games.
- Penn State has won 20 of their last 21 home games against non-AP-ranked teams, providing significant home-field advantage. Nebraska has lost 15 of their last 18 road games in November, a concerning trend for the visiting Cornhuskers. Penn State has covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 November games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams. However, Penn State has failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games against non-AP-ranked teams, suggesting recent vulnerability at home as favorites. Nebraska has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.
- No specific injury information is available from the provided search results.
- Public betting shows 63% of money on Penn State despite the team's recent struggles, indicating potential sharp money backing the Nittany Lions. Weather conditions at game time show 37ยฐF with 0% rain probability, providing neutral playing conditions. The game will be televised on NBC, a primetime slot. Penn State's totals have gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 games and 4 of their last 6 home games, suggesting offensive-minded play is likely.
- Penn State is highly motivated to secure a significant home win to salvage their disappointing season at 4-6. Nebraska seeks to extend their winning ways against non-AP-ranked opponents and prove they belong in the upper tier of Big Ten standings. Penn State's strong home record and November spread-covering history provide psychological advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn State -305 | Nebraska +245 | Penn State Nittany Lions | โ โ โ โ โ 73% |
| Spread | Penn State -7.5 (-112) | Nebraska +7.5 (-108) | Penn State -7.5 | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 43.5 (-115) | Under 43.5 (-105) | Over 43.5 | โ โ โ โโ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 43.5 1% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 43.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Penn State will defeat Nebraska 27-24, covering the 7.5-8.5 point spread. While Nebraska enters with a superior record and strong defensive metrics, Penn State's exceptional home-field performance (20-1 in last 21 home games against non-ranked teams) and historical success as November favorites against non-ranked opponents (13 of 14 covers) outweigh recent inconsistency. Penn State's offensive firepower combined with Nebraska's vulnerability in November road games (lost 15 of last 18) will determine the outcome. The game features closely matched statistical profiles with slight edges to Nebraska defensively and Penn State offensively, but venue and historical trends favor the home team.
Predicted Score: Penn State 27, Nebraska 24