Match Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Indiana Hoosiers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) face off against the struggling Penn State Nittany Lions (3-5, 0-5 Big Ten) in a pivotal Week 11 matchup. Indiana enters as heavy favorites with a top-ranked offense and solid defense, while Penn State is reeling from a coaching change, key injuries, and a lack of momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indiana is undefeated and boasts the 17th-ranked pass defense, averaging 55 points in their last game. Penn State has lost five straight, including a 38-14 defeat to Ohio State, and is ranked 14th in pass defense but has shown major offensive and defensive inconsistencies.
- Indiana has historically struggled in Happy Valley, but Penn Stateβs recent form and turmoil make this matchup less predictable based on past results.
- Indiana is dealing with some injuries but remains deep and resilient. Penn State is without starting QB Drew Allar for the season, severely limiting their offensive potential.
- Penn State recently fired head coach James Franklin, creating instability and low morale. Indiana is motivated to remain unbeaten and make a statement on the road.
- Indiana is playing for a playoff spot and program history. Penn State is fighting for pride and to avoid a historic low, but motivation appears low after the coaching change and losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers: -750, Penn State Nittany Lions: 530 | Indiana Hoosiers | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers: -14.5 -110, Penn State Nittany Lions: 14.5 -110 | Indiana Hoosiers -14.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | Over: 50.5 -110, Under: 50.5 -110 | Over 50.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 50.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indiana is the clear favorite and should dominate both sides of the ball. Penn Stateβs lack of leadership, injuries, and poor form make a cover and blowout likely.
Predicted Score: Indiana 41, Penn State 17