Match Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Indiana Hoosiers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Game Overview
The matchup features the Indiana Hoosiers, undefeated at 9-0 overall and 6-0 in Big Ten play, visiting the Penn State Nittany Lions, who hold a 3-5 overall record and are 0-5 in conference. Indiana is ranked No. 2 nationally and brings significant momentum with a nine-game winning streak. Penn State is struggling with five consecutive losses, including a 0-5 start in conference games. The game is a key Big Ten matchup with postseason implications.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indiana boasts a dominant offense and defense with an overall 9-0 record and perfect 6-0 in conference play. Penn State has been inconsistent, currently with a 3-5 record and winless in the Big Ten (0-5). At home, Penn State holds a 3-2 record, but the team is on a five-game losing streak, including tight losses. Indiana leads statistically in points scored and allowed.
- Recent direct matchups reflect Indiana's competitiveness rising, with this season showing Indiana as the clear favorite given current form and rankings. Penn State has historically been strong at home but has struggled in Big Ten contests this season.
- No notable injuries reported for key players on either team as of November 6, 2025. Both teams appear to be at full strength heading into the game.
- Playing at Beaver Stadium offers Penn State home-field advantage, yet Indianaโs dominant season suggests the venue advantage may have limited effect. Weather and other conditions not indicated as impactful.
- Indiana seeks to maintain an undefeated season and strengthen their position and ranking in the Big Ten, providing high motivation. Penn State looks to avoid a sixth straight conference loss and salvage pride at home, which may fuel their effort.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers: -770, Penn State Nittany Lions: 540 | Indiana Hoosiers | โ โ โ โ โ 90% |
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers: -14.5 -110, Penn State Nittany Lions: +14.5 -110 | Indiana Hoosiers -14.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 47.5 -115, Under: 47.5 -105 | Over 47.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 47.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indiana Hoosiers are strongly favored to win given their undefeated record, superior performance metrics, and the heavy moneyline odds backing them. The expected outcome is an Indiana victory by a margin exceeding the spread.
Predicted Score: Indiana Hoosiers 38 – Penn State Nittany Lions 21