Match Analysis: Oregon Ducks vs Oklahoma State Cowboys – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Autzen Stadium
Game Overview
The Oregon Ducks host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in an early-season NCAAF contest where Oregon is a heavy favorite, reflecting a significant talent and roster stability advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oregon enters 1-0 after a dominant 59-13 win with balanced offensive efficiency and a strong defense featuring multiple sacks and tackles for loss. Oklahoma State, also 1-0, has a new roster after a coaching-led transfer portal overhaul, struggling offensively with a backup quarterback starting and poor efficiency metrics.
- Oregon holds a commanding recent advantage with Oklahoma State losing 9 of their last 10 matchups against ranked teams and failing to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games. Oregon has won its last 32 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Oklahoma Stateβs starting quarterback Hoss Henjy is injured, forcing a backup to start, which significantly hinders their offensive capabilities. Oregon has no major reported injuries impacting their key units.
- Game takes place at Autzen Stadium, known for being a tough venue for visitors. Weather or other environmental conditions favor Oregonβs defensive and offensive style. Fan support heavily in favor of Oregon.
- Oregon aims to establish dominance early in the season and build on their strong start, while Oklahoma State is in a rebuilding phase with low offensive confidence and a desire to avoid an early blowout.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys: +2200, Oregon Ducks: -8000 | Oregon Ducks | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys: +28.5 -112, Oregon Ducks: -28.5 -108 | Oregon Ducks -28.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Over/under | Over: 56.5 -112, Under: 56.5 -108 | Under 56.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Oregon Ducks -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 56.5 25% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 56.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oregon Ducks to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -28.5 spread, and the game to go under the 56.5 total points.
Predicted Score: Oregon Ducks 38 – Oklahoma State Cowboys 10