Match Analysis: Ole Miss Rebels vs Florida Gators – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
Game Overview
The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (9-1) host the struggling Florida Gators (3-6) in a key SEC matchup. Ole Miss enters as a heavy favorite with strong recent form and home advantage, while Florida seeks an upset but faces significant challenges.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ole Miss is 9-1 with a 5-0 winning streak, showing strong offense and red zone efficiency (over 90%). Florida is 3-6 and has struggled with turnovers and consistency.
- Recent head-to-head matchups favor Ole Miss, who have dominated Florida in their last meetings, reflected also in the large spread favoring the Rebels.
- No significant injuries reported impacting Ole Miss starter lineup; Florida's injury situation weakens their competitiveness.
- Weather is expected to be mild (68Β°F, no rain, low wind), neutral for both teams. Ole Miss benefits from home-field familiarity and crowd support.
- Ole Miss aims to secure a 10-1 record and strengthen their playoff positioning, while Florida aims to avoid further downward spiral but with lower motivation given current record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss -575 / Florida +425 | Ole Miss Rebels | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Ole Miss -14.5 (-108) / Florida +14.5 (-112) | Ole Miss Rebels -14.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 53.5 (-110) / Under 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 53.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 53.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ole Miss Rebels to win outright on the moneyline with a strong cover of the -14.5 spread, and the total points to go under 53.5 given the defensive capabilities and cautious gameplay expected from Florida.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss Rebels 31 – Florida Gators 17