Match Analysis: Old Dominion Monarchs vs Troy Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-14
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA
Game Overview
The matchup features evenly matched Sun Belt teams Old Dominion Monarchs and Troy Trojans, both at 6-3 records. Old Dominion hosts at home with slightly better recent form and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Old Dominion is 4-1 in the last 5 games and 4-1 against the spread, showing stronger recent form. Both teams average similar records (6-3), but Old Dominion displays a balanced offense with 31.9 PPG and solid defense allowing 23.4 PPG.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Old Dominion holds a significant advantage in win probability models (79% pregame win probability vs. 21% for Troy), suggesting historical or situational dominance.
- No significant injuries reported for either team influencing key positions, indicating full-strength squads.
- Game played outdoors at Old Dominion’s home stadium with favorable weather (49°F, 0% rain, low wind), conditions favoring offensive execution.
- Both teams are competing for better Sun Belt standings with 3-2 (Old Dominion) and 4-1 (Troy) conference records; Old Dominion motivated to defend home turf and improve its position with a recent strong run.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs: -450, Troy Trojans: +350 | Old Dominion Monarchs | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs -10.5: -115, Troy Trojans +10.5: -105 | Old Dominion Monarchs -10.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 52.5: -110, Under 52.5: -110 | Under 52.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 52.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Old Dominion Monarchs to win straight up (moneyline), cover the spread (-10.5), and the total to go under 52.5 points.
Predicted Score: Old Dominion Monarchs 28 – Troy Trojans 17