Match Analysis: Old Dominion Monarchs vs Appalachian State Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Kornblau Field at S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA
Game Overview
Old Dominion Monarchs and Appalachian State Mountaineers both enter the game with 4-3 records and identical 1-2 Sun Belt conference records. Both teams have similar scoring averages around 27-33 points per game, but Old Dominion boasts a top-20 rushing offense and a strong home field advantage, making them favored by 14.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Old Dominion averages 33.1 PPG with a strong rushing attack (214.9 YPG) and solid defense allowing 26.3 PPG. Appalachian State scores 27.9 PPG with balanced passing (277.9 YPG) and rushing (142.4 YPG) but their defense is struggling against the run, allowing 258 rushing yards last week.
- Last meeting was a 28-20 Appalachian State win on Nov 2, 2024. Overall competitive history but current form favors Old Dominion at home.
- No major injuries reported for key offensive or defensive players on either team; both squads appear near full strength.
- Home field advantage for Old Dominion and moderate weather (58Β°F, no rain) favors a ground-based offensive approach. Crowd support expected strong for Monarchs.
- Both teams at 4-3, in the middle of the Sun Belt standings; Old Dominion likely more motivated to defend home turf after recent blowout loss vs Marshall, Appalachian State motivated to rebound after allowing heavy rushing day last week.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Old Dominion -560 / Appalachian State +420 | Old Dominion | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Old Dominion -14.5 (-102) / Appalachian State +14.5 (-120) | Old Dominion -14.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 62.5 (-115) / Under 62.5 (-105) | Over 62.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 62.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 62.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Old Dominion to win outright on moneyline; cover the -14.5 spread; game total to go over 62.5 points.
Predicted Score: Old Dominion 38 – Appalachian State 21