Match Analysis: Ohio State Buckeyes vs UCLA Bruins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
Game Overview
This matchup features the Ohio State Buckeyes hosting the UCLA Bruins in a non-conference NCAAF game. Ohio State is heavily favored, reflecting their dominant season and superior talent compared to UCLA, who have struggled in 2025. The game is expected to be a showcase of Ohio State's offensive firepower and defensive depth, with UCLA aiming to avoid a blowout and find any momentum for the remainder of their season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio State enters the game with a near-perfect record, boasting one of the nation's top offenses and defenses. Their average margin of victory is over 30 points, and they rank in the top 3 nationally in both scoring and total defense. UCLA, on the other hand, has had a disappointing season, with inconsistent quarterback play, a porous defense, and multiple losses to ranked teams. Their offense ranks near the bottom of the Power Five in scoring and yards per game.
- Ohio State and UCLA have met nine times in history, with the series tied at 4-4-1. The most recent meeting was in 2001, a 13-6 UCLA win. Ohio State has a 2-1-1 record at home against UCLA, while UCLA is 3-2 at home. The last two meetings were close, but the historical context is limited due to the long gap between matchups.
- Ohio State reports no major injuries to key starters, with their starting quarterback, running back, and defensive stars all expected to play. UCLA is missing their starting cornerback and starting linebacker due to season-ending injuries, and their backup quarterback is questionable with a minor ankle sprain.
- The game will be played in Columbus, Ohio, with cold weather expected (around 40ยฐF and possible rain). Ohio State has a strong home-field advantage, with a loud and passionate fan base. UCLA is traveling across the country, which could impact their preparation and recovery.
- Ohio State is fighting for a spot in the College Football Playoff and is highly motivated to maintain their undefeated record. UCLA is playing for pride and to avoid a winless season, with little postseason incentive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes: -8000, UCLA Bruins: 2200 | Ohio State Buckeyes | โ โ โ โ โ 98% |
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes: -32.5 -110, UCLA Bruins: 32.5 -110 | Ohio State Buckeyes -32.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 95% |
| Over/under | Over: 48.5 -110, Under: 48.5 -110 | Over 48.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 62% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 62% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State is expected to dominate this game, leveraging their superior talent, depth, and home-field advantage. UCLA's injuries and poor season form make it unlikely they can keep the game competitive. The most probable outcome is a decisive Ohio State victory, with the final score likely to be well above the spread.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 45, UCLA 10