Match Analysis: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ohio Stadium
Game Overview
The undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) host the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-4) with Ohio State heavily favored due to dominant recent form and a strong defensive unit. Penn State is struggling with a backup quarterback and a four-game losing streak, making it a challenging matchup for them at Ohio State Stadium.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ohio State is unbeaten with a dominant record both straight up and against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season, averaging 37.4 points of victory in such games. Penn State is on a four-game losing streak and has offensive struggles under an inexperienced QB. Defensively, Ohio State ranks among the best nationally, while Penn State allows about 19 points per game but lacks offensive firepower.
- Ohio State has won their last eight meetings with Penn State, though recent margins have been closer, averaging a 6.75 point victory. Penn State has been unable to cover as an underdog in its past 11 games, showing a trend of underperforming expectations against stronger opponents.
- Penn State is dealing with injuries and a backup quarterback situation, reducing the effectiveness of their passing game. Ohio State is relatively healthy and experienced at key positions, giving them a strong edge.
- Ohio State benefits from playing at home, where it has won 57 of its last 58 games against non-AP-ranked teams. There are no significant adverse weather or travel factors affecting either team.
- Ohio State remains highly motivated to maintain its perfect record and playoff positioning. Penn State faces an uphill battle trying to snap a losing streak and prove competitiveness, but motivation alone is unlikely to offset the talent and situational disparities.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State -1200 / Penn State +750 | Ohio State | β β β β β 88% |
| Spread | Ohio State -19.5 -110 / Penn State +19.5 -110 | Ohio State -19.5 | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | Over 44.5 -118 / Under 44.5 -102 | Under 44.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 44.5 29% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ohio State to win straight up (moneyline), cover the -19.5 spread, and the game to have under 44.5 total points scored.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 31 – Penn State 10