Match Analysis: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs USC Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
Game Overview
The match features the No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) hosting the No. 20 USC Trojans (5-1) in a key college football clash. Notre Dame has shown a resurgence with a recent 36-7 win over North Carolina State, highlighting a strong defense and a quick-tempo offense. USC comes off a 31-13 win against Michigan, showcasing a dynamic passing attack ranked second nationally. The game total is set at 61.5 points, reflecting expectations of an offensively competitive contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Notre Dame has been efficient offensively with a 70% completion rate by QB Jack Coan and strong rushing from Kyren Williams, complemented by a stout defense that limited USC last meeting to a late touchdown. USC boasts one of the best passing attacks in the nation and has maintained solid scoring, averaging around 27.6 points recently. Notre Dame's defense has effectively limited USC scoring in recent matchups.
- Historically, Notre Dame leads the overall series 50-38-5; however, since 2000, the teams are evenly matched at 12-12. Notre Dame has generally performed well against the spread with an 80% ATS win rate in the last five games versus USC and has tended to surpass total point expectations.
- No specific injury updates are provided in the available sources. Both teams appear able to field near full-strength rosters for this matchup.
- Playing at home in Notre Dame Stadium provides the Fighting Irish a notable home-field advantage. Both teams have had bye weeks or recent rest to prepare, reducing fatigue effects.
- With both teams ranked in the top 20 and holding rival status, motivation is high to secure a signature win that could influence College Football Playoff considerations and conference prestige.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -325, USC Trojans: 260 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | โ โ โ โ โ 82% |
| Spread | Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -9.5 (-112), USC Trojans: +9.5 (-108) | Notre Dame Fighting Irish to cover -9.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 61.5: -110, Under 61.5: -110 | Over 61.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 61.5 15% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Notre Dame is favored by 9.5 points, expected to leverage home advantage and defensive strength to control the game tempo and restrict USC's explosive passing game. The prediction favors a Notre Dame victory with an emphasis on limiting USC scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 34 – USC Trojans 21