Match Analysis: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs USC Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
Game Overview
The No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2) host the No. 20 USC Trojans (5-1) in a highly anticipated top-25 matchup. Notre Dame enters as a 9.5-point favorite with a strong defense and recent convincing wins, while USC features one of the nation's best passing attacks and has momentum following a dominant win over Michigan.
Key Factors to Consider
- Notre Dame is ranked 25th in rushing defense and allows 20.8 points per game, having held recent opponents to low scores including a 36-7 win in their last outing. USC boasts the No. 2 passing offense and the No. 16 rushing offense nationally, averaging 45.5 points per game but was held under 33 points in their last two contests.
- Notre Dame has dominated recent meetings, winning four of the last five encounters including back-to-back wins over USC by wide margins (48-20 and 49-35).
- No significant injuries reported for either team impact key starters or quarterbacks based on current available data.
- Notre Dame has home field advantage with strong crowd support at Notre Dame Stadium. Both teams are matched in motivation with Notre Dame seeking a signature ranked opponent win to secure playoff positioning and USC coming off a high-profile conference win.
- Notre Dame is highly motivated to prove themselves against a top-25 opponent they have recently beaten, aiming to solidify College Football Playoff aspirations. USC is motivated after a big victory over Michigan and to reclaim dominance over Notre Dame in this historic rivalry.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -325, away: +260 | Notre Dame | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Notre Dame: -9.5 (-112), USC: +9.5 (-108) | Notre Dame -9.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | over: 60.5 -115, under: 60.5 -105 | Under 60.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 60.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 60.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Notre Dame to cover the 9.5-point spread as they have the defensive superiority and recent dominance in this matchup; expect a moderately high-scoring game but slightly under the posted total due to strong defensive play and tempo control by Notre Dame.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 34 – USC 22