Match Analysis: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Purdue Boilermakers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium
Game Overview
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-2) host Purdue Boilermakers (2-1) in a Week 4 NCAA football matchup. Notre Dame struggles with defense giving up 34 points per game, while Purdue boasts a stronger defense allowing only 16.7 points per game. Purdue's offense is balanced with solid passing and rushing stats, whereas Notre Dameβs offense is moderately productive but faces defensive challenges.
Key Factors to Consider
- Purdue is 2-1 with strong defensive numbers (16.7 points allowed per game) and balanced offense featuring Ryan Browne and Devin Mockobee. Notre Dame is 0-2, scoring 32 points per game but allowing 34, indicating defensive vulnerabilities[1][2].
- No recent head-to-head data indicates dominance; historical trends favor Notre Dame at home but current form shifts advantage toward Purdueβs defense and momentum[4].
- No major injuries reported on either side that would significantly impact key positions this week[1][4].
- Game at Notre Dame Stadium favors home team slightly, but Purdueβs recent form and defensive consistency counterbalance the venue advantage[1][2]. Weather expected to be clear, minimal external disruptions[4].
- Notre Dame seeks first win of the season on home turf, offering motivation but also pressure. Purdue aims to continue strong start and capitalize on Notre Dameβs defensive woes[1][2].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Notre Dame: -3600, Purdue: +1500 | Notre Dame | β β β β β 85% |
Spread | Notre Dame -25.5 (-110), Purdue +25.5 (-110) | Purdue +25.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 54.5 (-108), Under 54.5 (-112) | Under 54.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 54.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 54.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Notre Dame to win moneyline due to home advantage and superior scoring ability, but likely to fall short against the spread given Purdueβs resilience and Notre Dameβs defensive weaknesses. Total points expected under 54.5 considering Purdueβs defensive strength and Notre Dameβs early-season struggles.
Predicted Score: Notre Dame 28 – Purdue 10