Match Analysis: North Texas Mean Green vs South Alabama Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: DATCU Stadium, Denton, Texas
Game Overview
North Texas Mean Green (4-0) host South Alabama Jaguars (1-3) with strong defenses, especially in passing, in a game expecting high scoring and a double-digit favorite spread for North Texas.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas enters undefeated with a 4-0 record, showcasing a top-11 nationally ranked pass defense; South Alabama comes off a 1-3 start with recent losses and a strong pass defense ranked 17th nationally, but with weaker overall results.
- Limited recent direct matchups, but North Texas holds home-field advantage and better recent form, including a 45-38 win over Army, while South Alabama recently lost 38-20 to Coastal Carolina, indicating North Texas has the upper hand.
- No significant injuries reported for key starters on either team, suggesting both squads will field close to full strength.
- The game is at North Texas' home stadium with favorable weather (76Β°F, clear) and no rain expected; ESPN+ coverage may add viewer pressure but no impact on on-field performance.
- North Texas motivated to maintain undefeated status and dominate in conference play; South Alabama aims to rebound from a tough start but faces a very challenging opponent on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | North Texas -450, South Alabama +340 | North Texas | β β β β β 82% |
Spread | North Texas -12.5 -108, South Alabama +12.5 -112 | North Texas -12.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Over/under | Over 62.5 -105, Under 62.5 -115 | Under 62.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 62.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 62.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas Mean Green to cover the -12.5 spread and win on moneyline with the game going under the 62.5 total points.
Predicted Score: North Texas 35 – South Alabama 20