Match Analysis: North Texas Mean Green vs Navy Midshipmen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: DATCU Stadium, Denton, Texas
Game Overview
A clash between two high-powered offenses: North Texas (ranked 1st in points per game) hosts undefeated Navy (ranked 16th in points per game). North Texas is a touchdown favorite at home, with a high total set at 65.5, reflecting both teams' offensive firepower[1][6].
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas enters 7-1, fresh off a dominant 54-20 win over Charlotte. Navy is 7-0, coming off a 42-32 victory over Florida Atlantic. Both offenses are prolific, but North Texas has faced slightly tougher competition and boasts the nation's top scoring offense[1].
- No recent extensive head-to-head history; Navy won a close 27-24 game in 2023. Little historical data suggests a clear edge, but recent form favors North Texas at home[3].
- No injury information available in search results. This is a critical unknown for precise modeling.
- The game is in Denton, TXβa clear home-field advantage for North Texas. No significant weather disruptions expected.
- Both teams are highly motivated: Navy seeks to stay unbeaten, North Texas aims to solidify its ranking and conference standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas -245, Navy +200 | North Texas | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Navy +7 (-115), North Texas -7 (-105) | Navy +7 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 65.5 (-115), Under 65.5 (-105) | Over | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 65.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 65.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Texas's offense, venue advantage, and recent form make them the safer pick, but Navy's undefeated record and scoring ability keep them dangerous. Expect a high-scoring affair with North Texas edging a close game.
Predicted Score: North Texas 38, Navy 35