Match Analysis: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Stanford Cardinal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Game Overview
The North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5) host the Stanford Cardinal (3-6) in an ACC matchup at Kenan Stadium on November 8, 2025. Both teams are struggling this season, with North Carolina slightly favored at home. The game is expected to be a low-scoring affair, with the over/under set at 41.5 points. North Carolina is a clear favorite on the moneyline and spread, reflecting their stronger home record and recent ATS performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Carolina averages 19.4 points per game (125th nationally) and allows 22.1 points (49th). Their offense is weak, ranking 116th in passing and 110th in rushing. Stanford's offense is similarly limited, but their defense is slightly better, allowing fewer points per game. North Carolina is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games and 3-1 ATS in home games, while Stanford is 3-6 overall and has struggled on the road.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but North Carolina holds a slight edge in historical matchups. Both teams have faced similar ACC competition this season, with North Carolina performing marginally better in conference play.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their starting lineups.
- The game will be played at Kenan Stadium, where North Carolina has a 3-1 ATS record this season. Weather is expected to be clear with mild temperatures, favoring neither team. The game will be broadcast on The CW and streamed on Fubo.
- Both teams are fighting to avoid a losing season and improve their ACC standings. North Carolina has more to play for at home, while Stanford is looking to end a losing streak on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels: -295, Stanford Cardinal: 240 | North Carolina Tar Heels | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels: -7.5 -105, Stanford Cardinal: 7.5 -115 | North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 41.5 -105, Under: 41.5 -115 | Under 41.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 41.5 3% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 41.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Carolina is favored to win this matchup, with a strong home record and better recent ATS performance. The game is expected to be close, but North Carolina's defense should hold Stanford in check. The total is likely to stay under 41.5 points due to both teams' offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: North Carolina 24, Stanford 17