Match Analysis: New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: MetLife Stadium
Game Overview
The Cleveland Browns (2-6) travel to face the New York Jets (1-7) in a Week 10 AFC matchup. Both teams are struggling, but the Browns are favored by 1.5 points with a total set at 37.5. The game is a battle for relevance in a weak division, with both sides desperate for a win.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Browns have shown flashes of competitiveness but have struggled defensively, allowing 23.8 points per game. The Jets have been worse, averaging just 14.4 points per game and surrendering 25.1. Clevelandβs recent form includes a win over Miami but losses to New England and Pittsburgh. The Jets have lost five straight, including a blowout to the Patriots.
- The Jets are 7-3 straight-up and against the spread in their last ten meetings with the Browns. Cleveland won the most recent matchup in 2023, 37-20, but the Jets have historically covered against Cleveland.
- No major injuries reported for either team, but both squads have depth issues at key positions, especially along the offensive lines and in the secondary.
- The game is at MetLife Stadium, which is a neutral site for both teams. Weather is expected to be clear with mild temperatures, favoring neither offense nor defense.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff relevance, but the Browns have more to lose and are under pressure to avoid a losing season. The Jets are playing for pride and draft positioning, but their recent home struggles suggest they may lack urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 110, away: -130 | Cleveland Browns | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | home: 1.5, away: -1.5 | New York Jets +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | over: 37.5, under: 37.5 | Over 37.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns 10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 37.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 37.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Browns are favored for a reason, but the Jets have a strong historical edge in this matchup and are likely to cover the spread. The total is set low, but both teams have shown an ability to score in spurts, making the over a strong play.
Predicted Score: Cleveland Browns 21 – New York Jets 20