Match Analysis: New Mexico State Aggies vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-02
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, New Mexico
Game Overview
Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4) visit New Mexico State Aggies (2-2) in a CUSA conference matchup at New Mexico State's home field. Both teams have struggled offensively and defensively but present exploitable matchups, especially in the passing game. Sam Houston is favored by a narrow margin despite a winless record, while New Mexico State is seeking to rebound from recent losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico State has a slightly better record (2-2) but just lost their last two games; their offense is pass-heavy, accounting for 91% of total production but with a weak rushing attack (20 yards/game). Sam Houston averages just 16 points per game under a new pass-focused coach but has defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 37+ points in every game.
- No recent direct matchup data available, but both teams show balanced vulnerabilities especially in pass defense, suggesting a potentially high-scoring and close contest.
- No significant injury reports surfaced for either team; both appear to field mostly full-strength rosters.
- Game played at New Mexico State's home stadium with warm, clear conditions and national TV coverage attracting focused betting interest.
- Sam Houston is desperate for its first win of the season after a 0-4 start, while New Mexico State aims to stop a two-game losing streak and protect home field advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +108, away: -130 | Sam Houston State | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | home: -114, away: -106 | Sam Houston State to cover -2.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Over 52.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 52.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sam Houston State to win on the moneyline, covering the 2.5-point spread, and the game to go over 52.5 points
Predicted Score: Sam Houston State 30 – New Mexico State 24