Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Idaho State Bengals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 7:05 PM UTC
- Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Game Overview
The New Mexico Lobos host the Idaho State Bengals in a Week 2 Mountain West Conference contest. Both teams are off to slow starts, with New Mexico 0-1 and Idaho State 0-2. The Lobos are heavily favored at home, reflecting a strong home field advantage and superior historical performance against Idaho State.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico is 0-1 overall, showing some struggles early but demonstrated solid defense at home last season. Idaho State is 0-2, with offensive production issues and a poor road record. Idaho State is 4-1 ATS in last 5 games, indicating they cover spreads well despite losses.
- Recent head-to-head matchups favor New Mexico, who have had better success both straight up and against the spread. New Mexico’s defense has consistently contained Idaho State’s offense in previous meetings.
- Idaho State's injury report is limited with no major starters missing. New Mexico has WR Kader Diop as a backup due to an undisclosed injury, but Shawn Miller is cleared and expected to contribute.
- Game is at altitude (~5350 ft) favoring New Mexico’s conditioning and home advantage. Weather is mild (76°F) with minimal rain and light wind, unlikely to affect gameplay significantly.
- New Mexico seeks to avoid an 0-2 start at home to build early season momentum, while Idaho State aims to rebound from a 0-2 start but faces the challenge of a tough road environment.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos: -610, Idaho State Bengals: +440 | New Mexico Lobos | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos: -14.5 -108, Idaho State Bengals: +14.5 -112 | New Mexico Lobos to cover -14.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 63.5 -110, Under: 63.5 -110 | Over 63.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 63.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 63.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico Lobos moneyline (ML -610) is the highest expected value play given the strong home advantage and better overall team performance. The spread of -14.5 to New Mexico is risky but moderately supported due to Idaho State's struggles. The total points line at 63.5 is high, but Idaho State’s defense weakness and tendency for high-scoring games favor the over slightly.
Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 38 – Idaho State Bengals 20
