Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs San Jose State Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
Game Overview
The Nevada Wolf Pack (1-8 overall, 0-5 in Mountain West Conference) host the San Jose State Spartans (3-6 overall, 2-3 in MWC) in a critical conference matchup. The Spartans are significant favorites due to better recent form and overall performance metrics, with a notably stronger offense and defense. Both teams have struggled, but Nevadaโs poor form at home and overall record contrasts with San Jose Stateโs higher win count and momentum despite a losing season.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose State exhibits stronger overall metrics with a 3-6 record and an improving offense averaging 2993 passing yards this season, compared to Nevada's 1-8 record and fewer offensive yards. Nevada has lost 5 straight games with little success at home, while San Jose State holds a moderate ATS record (against-the-spread) and shows better defensive stats.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but San Jose State holds the form edge and is favored across betting markets. The Spartans are expected to outscore Nevada based on offensive capabilities and defensive stops.
- No major injuries reported for either team ahead of the matchup, indicating full-strength lineups for both sides.
- Weather is expected to be clear and mild (around 53ยฐF) with no rain and light wind, creating neutral playing conditions. The stadium environment favors Nevada as the home team but they have struggled to capitalize on home games this season.
- Nevada is fighting to avoid a winless season and boost morale, while San Jose State aims to strengthen their Mountain West standing and push for a better finish, adding a motivational edge for both but with Spartans' momentum likely greater.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack: +265, San Jose State Spartans: -330 | San Jose State Spartans win | โ โ โ โ โ 82% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +9.5: -112, San Jose State Spartans -9.5: -108 | San Jose State Spartans -9.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5: -106, Under 50.5: -114 | Under 50.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 22% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose State Spartans are predicted to win convincingly, covering the -9.5 spread thanks to stronger offense, better form, and confidence. The total points are likely to stay under the listed over/under mark due to defensive strengths and recent scoring trends.
Predicted Score: San Jose State Spartans 31 – Nevada Wolf Pack 17