Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada
Game Overview
The Nevada Wolf Pack (1-1) host the struggling Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (0-2) at Mackay Stadium. Nevada enters as a heavy favorite following a close win over Sacramento State, while Middle Tennessee is winless with defensive struggles and offensive inefficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nevada is 1-1 with a recent narrow win (20-17), showing competitive but inconsistent play. Middle Tennessee is 0-2, coming off a heavy 42-10 loss to Wisconsin, with poor offense averaging under 40 rushing yards per game and a defense allowing about 38 points and 389 yards per game.
- Recent direct matchups favor Nevada, who have demonstrated more consistent performance against Middle Tennessee historically. Specific recent H2H data not available but overall trend supports Nevada dominance.
- No major injury reports altering key personnel found in last updates for either team, suggesting lineups likely near full strength.
- Home field advantage for Nevada at Mackay Stadium with favorable weather expected (77Β°F, no rain, light wind), supporting offensive effectiveness. Middle Tennessee faces fatigue and morale issues from a 5-game losing streak overall.
- Nevada motivated to improve to 2-1 after a close opener, seeking to capitalize on home crowd and weaker opponent. Middle Tennessee under pressure after two losses, likely with low confidence and struggling on both sides.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack: -355, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: +280 | Nevada Wolf Pack | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5: -110, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.5: -110 | Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 48.5: -110, Under 48.5: -110 | Over 48.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 48.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nevada to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -9.5 spread, and the total score to go over 48.5 points.
Predicted Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 31 – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 21