Match Analysis: NC State Wolfpack vs Virginia Cavaliers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium
Game Overview
NC State Wolfpack and Virginia Cavaliers both opened the season strong at 1-0. NC State is favored at home by 2.5 points with a total set near 53.5 points. Virginia showed impressive offensive and defensive performances in their opener, but NC State's balanced attack and home advantage are significant factors.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are 1-0; NC State has shown a solid offense and defense, favored on home turf. Virginia's offense, led by quarterback Chandler Morris, demonstrated efficiency with 264 passing yards and 2 TDs, but the running game was less consistent.
- NC State has a historically strong record against Virginia, winning the last 11 times as a favorite against Virginia teams, while Virginia has struggled in September games in recent years, including against NC State.
- No major injuries reported for either side, enabling both teams to field their best players and execute game plans without adjustment for absences.
- Game played at NC Stateβs Carter-Finley Stadium with favorable weather forecast (86Β°F, no rain, light wind), benefitting NC Stateβs home advantage.
- Both teams are motivated to start the season 2-0, but NC Stateβs home comfort and the good betting trends favor their performance; Virginiaβs defense will need to counter NC Stateβs balanced attack.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -128, away: 106 | NC State Wolfpack | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | NC State Wolfpack -2.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Over 53.5 points | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 53.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: NC State Wolfpack at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
NC State Wolfpack to cover the -2.5 spread, moneyline win for NC State, and the game to go over 53.5 points
Predicted Score: NC State 31 – Virginia 23