Match Analysis: Navy Midshipmen vs South Florida Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Game Overview
The matchup features two equally strong teams at 7-2, highlighting the clash between Navy's top-ranked rushing offense and South Florida's top-25 rushing defense. South Florida enters as a strong favorite both in moneyline and spread, with expectations of a high-scoring game but an over/under total set in the mid-60s.
Key Factors to Consider
- Navy Midshipmen lead the nation in rushing offense and have a 10-2 record in their last 12 games, though struggle ATS with only 2-7 this season. South Florida Bulls have a strong defense ranked 23rd in rush defense, are 6-2-1 ATS, and average 42 points per game, ranking 6th nationally in scoring.
- No recent direct data available explicitly, but trends show South Florida has consistently covered spreads against Navy, and Navy struggles ATS overall, especially on the road.
- No significant injury reports have been noted for either team that would affect the matchup or key starters.
- Game played at Navy's home stadium with moderate weather (49Β°F, no rain), which favors Navyβs run-heavy style but South Floridaβs strong defense and experience may offset this.
- Both teams have strong motivation with similar records and conference standings; South Florida is looking to solidify their position as a top American Conference team, while Navy aims to maintain dominance in rushing and home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen: +315, South Florida Bulls: -400 | South Florida Bulls | β β β β β 79% |
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen +10.5: -114, South Florida Bulls -10.5: -106 | South Florida Bulls -10.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 64.5: -115, Under 64.5: -105 | Under 64.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 64.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 64.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Florida Bulls to win on the moneyline and cover the -10.5 point spread, with the game going under the set total of 64.5 points.
Predicted Score: South Florida Bulls 39, Navy Midshipmen 23