Match Analysis: Montreal Alouettes vs Ottawa Redblacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-13
- Time: 5:05 PM UTC
- Location: Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC
Game Overview
Montreal Alouettes (8-7) face Ottawa Redblacks (4-11) in Week 19 of the 2025 CFL season. Montreal has secured a playoff spot and looks to build momentum, while Ottawa is eliminated and likely not fielding their strongest lineup. Montreal is a heavy favorite at home, with the spread set at -13.5 and total points line at 51.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montreal is on a strong trajectory with QB Davis Alexander (9-0 as CFL starter) returning from injury and delivering high yardage and efficiency. Ottawa struggles with inconsistency and a poor record, recently losing 20-13 to Saskatchewan with turnovers hurting their offense.
- Recent performances show Montreal dominating Ottawa, with Montreal winning the last meetings comfortably. Ottawa has not contested Montreal well, especially with Montreal's solid home advantage.
- Montrealβs QB Davis Alexander returned from hamstring injury effectively. Ottawaβs key offensive players have underperformed or been turnover-prone. No major injury news strongly impacts Montreal, while Ottawaβs depth is questionable given their season status.
- Game played on Thanksgiving Monday, potentially impacting short week dynamics, but Montrealβs motivation to prepare for playoffs is higher. Weather and stadium conditions favor home team consistency.
- Montreal aims to solidify playoff momentum; Ottawa appears to be in 'rebuilding mode' with no postseason stakes, possibly leading to a less motivated or younger roster.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Montreal -850, Ottawa +570 | Montreal Alouettes | β β β β β 87% |
Spread | Montreal -13.5 (-122), Ottawa +13.5 (+100) | Montreal Alouettes -13.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 51.5 -110, Under 51.5 -110 | Over 51.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Montreal Alouettes -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 51.5 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montreal Alouettes to win outright and cover the -13.5 spread with total points expected to finish over 51.5
Predicted Score: Montreal Alouettes 34 – Ottawa Redblacks 17