Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
Game Overview
Undefeated Texas A&M (8-0) faces Missouri (6-2) in a pivotal SEC matchup. The Aggies boast a potent offense and stout defense, while Missouri is solid but not on the same tier this season. Texas A&M is favored by a touchdown on the road, with the total set around 48.5 points. Both teams have legitimate motivation: A&M is playoff-hunting, while Mizzou fights for bowl positioning.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas A&M averages 200 rushing yards per game and has a balanced, efficient offense led by QB Marcel Reed (17 TDs, 6 INTs). Missouri is solid defensively, but Texas A&Mβs defense (23.8 PPG allowed) outperforms Missouriβs on paper[1]. Missouri has held its own against lesser foes but faltered against top SEC teams.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited in the search, but A&M has won 8 straight this year, while Mizzouβs losses came against tougher competition.
- No major injury news in the searchβassume both teams are near full strength for the purposes of this analysis.
- Cold November afternoon in Columbia, but no major weather disruptions expected. Crowd support is strong for Missouri, but Texas A&Mβs superior roster and coaching edge should neutralize home-field advantage.
- Texas A&M is playing for playoff contention, possibly a slight edge for Mizzou to play spoiler, but motivation is high for both.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri 220, Texas A&M -270[4] | Texas A&M moneyline | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | Missouri +6.5 -102, Texas A&M -6.5 -120[1][2] | Texas A&M -6.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 48.5 -110, Under 48.5 -110[1][2] | Under 48.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies 118% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 48.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Texas A&M Aggies at 118% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas A&Mβs superior roster and momentum make them the clear play in all markets, with the value likely on the spread and under as Missouriβs defense keeps it from being a complete blowout but cannot match A&Mβs scoring punch.
Predicted Score: Texas A&M 27, Missouri 20