Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 12:45 AM UTC
- Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri
Game Overview
SEC matchup between Missouri Tigers (6-3 overall, 2-2 SEC) hosting Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-5 overall, 0-4 SEC). Both teams enter with significant momentum concerns after suffering lopsided losses last weekβMissouri fell 38-17 to Texas A&M while Mississippi State dropped 41-21 to Georgia. Missouri is a heavy favorite at -7.5 with a total of 51.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri has a 4-3 home record ATS with an average home point total of 51.1, suggesting consistent scoring patterns at Faurot Field. Mississippi State's away splits show an average point total of 59.0, indicating they typically face higher-scoring environments on the road, though they are 3-1 ATS away from home. Both teams' recent blowout losses suggest offensive inefficiency and potential defensive vulnerabilities, but Missouri's home field advantage is significant.
- No recent H2H data provided in available sources, limiting direct historical comparison analysis for this specific matchup.
- Quarterback uncertainty plagues both sides. Missouri and Mississippi State both face uncertain QB situations that could force run-heavy offensive schemes, potentially reducing overall offensive output and creating a running clock dynamic that suppresses total points scored.
- Both teams are dealing with psychological momentum loss following 20+ point defeats. Mississippi State's 0-4 SEC record creates desperation, though traveling to a top program's home field is challenging. Missouri's home crowd advantage and superior talent should provide situational edge.
- Mississippi State faces near-season-ending implications at 0-4 in conference play; however, this motivation paradoxically may not translate to performance given the talent differential and travel factor. Missouri seeks to rebuild confidence after a home loss to Texas A&M.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri -280 / Mississippi State +230 | Missouri Tigers | β β β β β 76% |
| Spread | Missouri -7.5 (100) / Mississippi State +7.5 (-122) | Missouri -7.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 51.5 (-110) / Under 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Missouri Tigers will defeat Mississippi State Bulldogs by 10-14 points in a lower-scoring affair. The combination of QB uncertainty on both sides, Missouri's home-field advantage, and Mississippi State's depleted conference record creates a clear Missouri advantage, though the under-51.5 total is the strongest conviction play.
Predicted Score: Missouri 27, Mississippi State 16