Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs UTEP Miners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, Missouri
Game Overview
The Missouri State Bears (6-3 overall, 1-1 CUSA) host the UTEP Miners (2-7 overall, 0-2 CUSA) in a Conference USA matchup. Missouri State enters as a significant favorite, having established themselves as one of the stronger teams in the conference this season. UTEP, struggling at 2-7, faces a difficult road challenge against a Bears team playing at home with momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State has compiled a 6-3 record and maintains a 3-2 record in their last 5 games, demonstrating consistency. The Bears are also 3-2 against the spread in their last 5 games and 3-2 in road games against the spread. UTEP's 2-7 record reflects significant struggles this season, with the Miners winless in conference play at 0-2 CUSA. Offensively, both teams show similar rushing capabilities (UTEP: 998 yards, Missouri State: 996 yards), but Missouri State has proven more effective overall.
- No specific head-to-head historical data is provided in the available search results for this matchup.
- Missouri State linebacker Jalen Brooks is out due to personal reasons. No significant injuries are reported for UTEP.
- The game will be played at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Missouri, providing Missouri State with strong home-field advantage. Weather conditions are favorable with temperatures around 74ยฐF and 0% chance of rain, eliminating weather as a factor.
- Missouri State seeks to improve their conference record and maintain dominance at home, while UTEP desperately needs a win to avoid further decline in what has been a disappointing season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri State -192 | UTEP +160 | Missouri State Bears to win | โ โ โ โ โ 87% |
| Spread | Missouri State -4.5 (-108) | UTEP +4.5 (-112) | Missouri State Bears -4.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 49.5 (-108) | Under 49.5 (-112) | Under 49.5 | โ โ โ โโ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 6% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Missouri State Bears are heavily favored to win this matchup. The combination of home-field advantage, superior overall record, better conference performance, and UTEP's ongoing struggles creates a significant gap between these teams. Missouri State should control the game from start to finish.
Predicted Score: Missouri State 24, UTEP 16