Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs UTEP Miners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Game Overview
Missouri State Bears (6-3) host UTEP Miners (2-7) in a Conference USA matchup. The Bears are favored on the moneyline and spread, with a total set at 49.5 points. Both teams have struggled with injuries and inconsistent offensive production.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State has won 3 of their last 5 games and 3 of their last 5 ATS, but their offense has been limited, averaging 3.49 YPC and 13.9 yards per point. UTEP has lost 5 straight, averaging 3.58 YPC and 15.58 yards per point, with a weak turnover margin and poor road record.
- No recent H2H data available, but Missouri State has a clear edge in overall record and conference standing.
- Missouri State is missing LB Jalen Brooks (out). UTEP has multiple key injuries: WRs Tate, Rhone, Smith, Bell Jr., TEs Ezinwa, Cheeks, Clinton, RB Thomas, LB Dyman, and WR Hill. These absences severely impact UTEP's offensive and defensive depth.
- Game is at Missouri State's home stadium. Weather is favorable (74Β°F, 0% rain, light wind). Missouri Stateβs home totals have gone under in 4 of their last 5 games.
- Missouri State is fighting for a winning season and bowl eligibility. UTEP is out of contention and has little to play for, which may affect effort and focus.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -192 | Missouri State Bears | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | -4.5 -108 | Missouri State Bears -4.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | 49.5 -108 | Under | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Missouri State Bears to win outright and cover the spread, with the game finishing under the total.
Predicted Score: Missouri State 24, UTEP 17