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Missouri State Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs SMU Mustangs – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, Missouri

Game Overview

The SMU Mustangs (1-1) visit the Missouri State Bears (1-1) with SMU as heavy favorites both on the moneyline and spread. SMU had a close 48-45 loss to Baylor recently, showing strong offensive firepower, while Missouri State eked out a narrow 21-20 win versus Marshall. The total points line is set high at 61.5, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring game.

Key Factors to Consider

  • SMU has demonstrated explosive offense but a marginal defense, allowing 48 in their last game. Missouri State has shown resilience winning close games but lacks offensive consistency, averaging fewer yards per play than SMU. Both teams are 1-1, but SMU's offensive efficiency (yards per pass and rush) is superior.
  • No prior head-to-head data available; first meeting.
  • No significant injury reports available for either team.
  • Game is played at Missouri State's home stadium, possibly providing modest home-field advantage for the Bears despite being underdogs.
  • SMU looks to rebound from a high-scoring loss and assert conference strength; Missouri State aims to capitalize on home advantage and avoid blowout.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +1300, away: -2800 SMU Mustangs ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread home: +27.5 -105, away: -27.5 -115 Missouri State Bears +27.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: 61.5 -108, under: 61.5 -112 Over 61.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline SMU Mustangs -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 61.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 61.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Take SMU Mustangs moneyline for a strong expected value given overwhelming odds and expected dominance; expect a close contest with Missouri State covering the large spread; game total to go over due to both teams' offensive tendencies.

Predicted Score: SMU Mustangs 44, Missouri State Bears 21


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Missouri State Bears vs. SMU Mustangs Prediction

Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs SMU Mustangs – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-09-13 Time: 7:30 PM UTC Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, Missouri Game Overview The SMU Mustangs (1-1) visit the Missouri State Bears (1-1) with SMU as heavy favorites both on the moneyline and spread. SMU had a close 48-45 loss to […]

American Football Missouri State Bears September 13, 2025 SMU Mustangs

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Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Nevada Wolf Pack vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada

Game Overview

The Nevada Wolf Pack (1-1) host the struggling Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (0-2) at Mackay Stadium. Nevada enters as a heavy favorite following a close win over Sacramento State, while Middle Tennessee is winless with defensive struggles and offensive inefficiency.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nevada is 1-1 with a recent narrow win (20-17), showing competitive but inconsistent play. Middle Tennessee is 0-2, coming off a heavy 42-10 loss to Wisconsin, with poor offense averaging under 40 rushing yards per game and a defense allowing about 38 points and 389 yards per game.
  • Recent direct matchups favor Nevada, who have demonstrated more consistent performance against Middle Tennessee historically. Specific recent H2H data not available but overall trend supports Nevada dominance.
  • No major injury reports altering key personnel found in last updates for either team, suggesting lineups likely near full strength.
  • Home field advantage for Nevada at Mackay Stadium with favorable weather expected (77°F, no rain, light wind), supporting offensive effectiveness. Middle Tennessee faces fatigue and morale issues from a 5-game losing streak overall.
  • Nevada motivated to improve to 2-1 after a close opener, seeking to capitalize on home crowd and weaker opponent. Middle Tennessee under pressure after two losses, likely with low confidence and struggling on both sides.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Nevada Wolf Pack: -355, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: +280 Nevada Wolf Pack ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5: -110, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.5: -110 Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 48.5: -110, Under 48.5: -110 Over 48.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Nevada Wolf Pack -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 48.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 48.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nevada to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -9.5 spread, and the total score to go over 48.5 points.

Predicted Score: Nevada Wolf Pack 31 – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 21


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Bowling Green Falcons vs. Liberty Flames Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Bowling Green Falcons vs Liberty Flames – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 9:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio

Game Overview

Liberty Flames and Bowling Green Falcons both enter the matchup with 1-1 records, showing comparable recent performances. Liberty is favored by bookmakers (-6.5) and has a more prolific offense statistically, averaging 32 points per game compared to Bowling Green's 23. The total points line is set at 51.5, reflecting a potential moderately high-scoring game.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Liberty's offense outpaces Bowling Green's with higher passing and rushing yards per game. Both teams' defenses allow roughly 20.5 points per game. Bowling Green demonstrated strong passing efficiency (75.9% completion) with Drew Pyne, whereas Liberty’s balanced attack is led by Ethan Vasko and Evan Dickens.
  • No recent detailed head-to-head data provided, but both teams are evenly matched at 1-1 this season. Liberty is the historical favorite in betting lines.
  • No significant injury reports available for key players, indicating both teams likely at full strength.
  • The game is played at Bowling Green’s home stadium with favorable weather conditions (81°F, no rain). Liberty travels as favorites but in less familiar territory.
  • Both teams are aiming to improve their 1-1 start. Liberty may have a confidence edge from higher scoring potential and the team motivation to assert dominance on the road.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bowling Green Falcons: 195, Liberty Flames: -238 Liberty Flames ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Bowling Green Falcons: -112, Liberty Flames: -108 Liberty Flames -6.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 51.5: -105, Under 51.5: -115 Under 51.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Liberty Flames -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 51.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Liberty Flames to win straight up, cover the -6.5 spread, and the total score to go under 51.5 points.

Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 28 – Bowling Green Falcons 20


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Miami Hurricanes vs. South Florida Bulls Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Miami Hurricanes vs South Florida Bulls – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 8:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

Game Overview

The No. 5 Miami Hurricanes (2-0) host the No. 18 South Florida Bulls (2-0) in a critical matchup with Miami favored by 17.5 points. Miami has shown dominance on defense and offense, averaging 36 points per game without turnovers, while South Florida is riding momentum from winning two straight against ranked opponents.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Miami has beaten Bethune-Cookman 45-3 and Notre Dame narrowly, showing both offensive firepower and strong defense. South Florida won tightly against Florida 18-16, demonstrating resilience but less scoring ability.
  • Historically, Miami dominates at home with 16 wins in their last 17 home games vs. South Florida. Recent H2H favors Miami's superior talent and experience.
  • No major injuries reported impacting starting lineups significantly for either team.
  • Game played at Miami's home stadium, Hard Rock Stadium, offering them crowd support and familiarity. The Bulls may face a challenging travel factor.
  • South Florida is highly motivated to prove themselves against a top-5 team and keep their unbeaten streak; Miami seeks to affirm dominance in the ACC and maintain their top-5 status.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Miami -800, South Florida +550 Miami Hurricanes ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Miami -17.5 -105, South Florida +17.5 -115 South Florida Bulls +17.5 ★★★☆☆ 64%
Over/under Over 57.5 -108, Under 57.5 -112 Over 57.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Miami Hurricanes -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 57.5 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 57.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Miami Hurricanes to win outright and cover the spread appears unlikely given Miami's coach Cristobal's poor home favorite ATS record. The safest highest EV single outcome bet is Miami moneyline, though with a large favorite price. Over 57.5 points is also plausible given Miami's offense and South Florida's ability to score some points.

Predicted Score: Miami Hurricanes 38 – South Florida Bulls 21


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Texas Longhorns vs. UTEP Miners Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs UTEP Miners – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 8:15 PM UTC
  • Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas

Game Overview

The Texas Longhorns, ranked No. 7 nationally, face the UTEP Miners in a Week 3 NCAAF contest. Texas enters as a dominant 41.5-point favorite with a strong offense and opportunistic defense, while UTEP has shown promise but is clearly outmatched.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Texas is averaging over 40 points per game with a balanced and high-powered offense and a defense capable of forcing turnovers. UTEP has a mixed ground game and struggles to defend disciplined, elite offenses.
  • Recent matchups heavily favor Texas, who control their home field and possess superior talent depth and execution.
  • No significant injuries reported for Texas; UTEP’s key skill position players remain intact but are young and developing.
  • The game being in Austin favors Texas with a strong home crowd and familiar environment. No adverse weather or other external conditions expected.
  • Texas seeks to assert dominance early in the season and demonstrate top-10 credentials. UTEP aims to prove resilience but faces an uphill battle.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Texas -100000, UTEP +5000 Texas Moneyline ★★★★★ 95%
Spread Texas -41.5 -108, UTEP +41.5 -112 Texas -41.5 ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under Over 51.5 -105, Under 51.5 -115 Over 51.5 ★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Home 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 51.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Texas Longhorns to cover the 41.5-point spread decisively

Predicted Score: Texas 48 – UTEP 7


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Missouri Tigers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri

Game Overview

Missouri Tigers, currently ranked No. 25 and undefeated at 2-0, host the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns, who hold a 1-1 record. Missouri’s strong offense and defense, combined with home-field advantage and recent dominating performances, make them heavy favorites. Louisiana has shown some offensive potential but lacks experience against Power Five opponents like Missouri.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Missouri has displayed balanced offensive efficiency and a stout defense, winning their last game 42-31. Louisiana managed a solid 34-10 win recently but against a weaker opponent; their defense is likely to struggle against Missouri’s multi-faceted attack.
  • Missouri has historically dominated this matchup, with Louisiana rarely competing closely especially when Missouri is home and in form.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team that would impact the game.
  • Missouri’s home venue at Faurot Field is known for a strong home advantage with vocal support, creating a challenging environment for visiting teams.
  • Missouri aims to stay undefeated and build momentum for the season ahead, while Louisiana faces a tough road challenge that may dampen their motivation given the disparity in talent and ranking.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline missouri: -4500, louisiana: +1700 Missouri Tigers ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread missouri: -27.5 -102, louisiana: +27.5 -118 Missouri Tigers -27.5 ★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under over: 47.5 -108, under: 47.5 -112 Over 47.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Missouri Tigers -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 47.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 47.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Missouri Tigers to win decisively and cover the large spread, with the game projecting an above-average total score given Missouri’s offensive firepower.

Predicted Score: Missouri 44 – Louisiana 7


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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Iowa State Cyclones Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Iowa State Cyclones – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas

Game Overview

Iowa State Cyclones enter as heavy favorites against Arkansas State Red Wolves, who have shown inconsistencies early in the season.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Iowa State is undefeated at 3-0, with a strong defensive showing allowing 20.5 points per game, and a balanced offense led by QB Rocco Becht. Arkansas State is 1-1, recently suffering a heavy loss (56-14) to Arkansas Razorbacks.
  • Recent head-to-head data is limited; Iowa State's higher ranking and confidence from recent wins against quality opponents gives them a strong mental edge.
  • No significant injuries reported for either team that would majorly affect game outcome.
  • Game played at Arkansas State’s home venue with 92°F and no rain, which may slightly favor the home team, but likely minimal impact given Iowa State’s form.
  • Iowa State, ranked No. 14, motivated to maintain unbeaten streak and build momentum for tougher upcoming matches; Arkansas State aims to bounce back but faces steep odds.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: +850, away: -1450 Iowa State Cyclones ★★★★☆ 85%
Spread home: -105, away: -115 Iowa State -20.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: -112, under: -108 Under 55.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Iowa State Cyclones -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 55.5 16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 55.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Iowa State to win, cover the spread, and the total points to go under 55.5

Predicted Score: Iowa State thirty-four – Arkansas State eleven


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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Villanova Wildcats Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Villanova Wildcats – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium

Game Overview

The #2 Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0) host the Villanova Wildcats (1-0) in a typical FBS-FCS matchup where Penn State is a heavy favorite. The Nittany Lions have shown solid form so far, while Villanova is less proven against top-tier competition. The game is expected to be dominated by Penn State on both sides of the ball.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Penn State is 2-0 this season with strong defensive and offensive units, although their offense underperformed somewhat in Week 2. Villanova just started their season 1-0 with a win over Colgate, but they are FCS level and expected to struggle against an elite FBS team.
  • No recent head-to-head data available, but Penn State historically dominates FCS opponents and Villanova has no significant wins over top FBS programs.
  • No major injuries reported for key Penn State players such as QB Drew Allar and RB Nicholas Singleton, who should both be motivated to perform well. Villanova's injury status is unclear but unlikely to match Penn State's depth.
  • Weather is clear and mild, no rain, with calm wind, providing optimal conditions for a high-scoring game at Beaver Stadium.
  • Penn State aims to keep their unbeaten streak and maintain momentum before their first bye week. Villanova is motivated but realistically in a heavy underdog role with limited upside.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -1000 Penn State ★★★★★ 94%
Spread -110 Penn State -48.5 ★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under -110 Over 55.5 ★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Home 3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 55.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 55.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Penn State to win outright (moneyline), cover the large spread (-48.5), and the game to go over the total (55.5 points) given Penn State's offensive firepower and Villanova's defensive limitations.

Predicted Score: Penn State 49 – Villanova 14


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Toledo Rockets vs. Morgan State Bears Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Morgan State Bears – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH

Game Overview

The Toledo Rockets host the Morgan State Bears at the Glass Bowl in a matchup featuring a Toledo team with a 1-1 record going against an 0-2 Morgan State team. Toledo has a significant home advantage and historical dominance when playing on Saturdays at home. Morgan State is struggling with offensive production and defensive lapses, while Toledo has demonstrated stronger form and defensive resilience.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Toledo is 1-1 this season, showing balanced offensive and defensive output, averaging around 30.5 points per game. Morgan State is 0-2 with a porous defense allowing 32.5 points per game and limited passing efficiency (62% completion rate, only 1 TD vs 2 INT). Morgan State’s ground game is more productive but insufficient to offset their defensive weaknesses.
  • No recent H2H data available, but Toledo’s recent home success on Saturdays (12-1 SU in last 13 games) and historical dominance over weaker programs strongly favors Toledo.
  • No significant injury reports are available for either team, indicating both squads should have their main contributors available.
  • Temperature of 82°F and no rain with mild wind conditions suggest neutral weather impact. The Glass Bowl home crowd and environment favor Toledo strongly.
  • Toledo aims to improve to 2-1 and assert MAC dominance early, while Morgan State is seeking its first win of the season and faces a daunting challenge on the road, likely impacting confidence and motivation levels.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Toledo -30000, Morgan State +4000 Toledo Rockets ★★★★★ 95%
Spread Toledo -33.5 -110, Morgan State +33.5 -110 Toledo Rockets -33.5 ★★★★★ 90%
Over/under Over 51.5 -110, Under 51.5 -110 Under 51.5 ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Toledo Rockets -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 51.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bet on Toledo Rockets dominating with a moneyline win, covering the large spread, and a game total expected to stay under 51.5 points due to Morgan State's weak offense and Toledo's controlled game pace.

Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 38 – Morgan State Bears 10


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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Richmond Spiders Prediction NCAAF in American Football

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Match Analysis: North Carolina Tar Heels vs Richmond Spiders – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

Game Overview

North Carolina Tar Heels and Richmond Spiders both enter Week 3 with 1-1 records, facing off in Chapel Hill. UNC is heavily favored, with a strong historical edge and home advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • UNC has shown solid but not dominant form, splitting their first two games. Richmond is also 1-1 but has less recent success against UNC historically.
  • UNC leads the all-time series 12-2. The last meeting was in 1978, with Richmond winning that game, but UNC has generally dominated historically.
  • No significant injury reports impacting starters from either team are currently noted, implying both squads should be near full strength.
  • Weather is projected to be ideal football conditions: 78°F at kickoff with light 8 MPH winds, no rain expected.
  • UNC aims to build momentum ahead of tougher ACC games, including Clemson. Richmond seeks to upset a Power Five conference foe, providing some underdog motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline North Carolina Tar Heels: -3000, Richmond Spiders: 1200 North Carolina Tar Heels ★★★★☆ 88%
Spread North Carolina Tar Heels -21.5: -115, Richmond Spiders +21.5: -105 North Carolina Tar Heels -21.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -105 Under 46.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline North Carolina Tar Heels -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 46.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

North Carolina Tar Heels moneyline; UNC to cover -21.5 spread; Under 46.5 points total

Predicted Score: North Carolina Tar Heels 28 – Richmond Spiders 14


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