Match Analysis: Missouri State Bears vs Florida International Panthers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Springfield, Missouri
Game Overview
Missouri State Bears (4-3) host Florida International Panthers (3-4) in a Conference USA matchup with Missouri State favored by 3.5 points and a total of 51.5 points set.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State is slightly better on recent form (3-2 last 5 games) and has a strong offensive pass EPA advantage; FIU has a significant rush EPA advantage but recent heavy loss to Kennesaw State impacts confidence.
- Limited recent direct matchups; no significant historical advantage established.
- No significant injuries reported impacting starters or key playmakers for either team at this time.
- Game played at Missouri State's home stadium which has been a low-scoring environment (only one over total in 7 games this season). Weather projected mild at 48Β°F with low rain chance and moderate wind.
- Missouri State aims to consolidate a winning record and strengthen conference positioning; FIU seeks to rebound after a tough loss and improve their conference record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears: -174, Florida International Panthers: +146 | Missouri State Bears | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Missouri State Bears -3.5 (-115), Florida International Panthers +3.5 (-105) | Missouri State Bears -3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 51.5 (-110), Under 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Missouri State Bears moneyline for highest expected value, with the spread also promising but slightly lower confidence; game total expected to go under 51.5 points due to defensive tendencies and venue scoring trends.
Predicted Score: Missouri State 27 – Florida International 20