Match Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Tennessee Volunteers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
Game Overview
The Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) with a potent No. 4 scoring offense face the unbeaten Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) who boast the No. 16 scoring defense in a key SEC matchup at Starkville.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tennessee scored 56 points in their last win but are on their first true road test; Mississippi State is 4-0 both straight and against the spread, coming off a 38-10 win with a strong defensive showing.
- Tennessee leads the all-time series and won the last meeting convincingly 33-4 at home; however, this game is at Mississippi Stateβs home field, which significantly shifts dynamics.
- No major reported injuries to either starting offense or defense units influencing key roles.
- Line movement shows heavy sharp money on Mississippi State, dropping Tennesseeβs spread from -9.5 to -7.5; home crowd and hostile atmosphere expected to benefit Bulldogs. Weather forecast is ideal with no rain and mild temperature.
- Mississippi State aims to prove their 4-0 record is legitimate in conference play while Tennessee looks to rebound from a recent tough overtime loss to Georgia on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mississippi State +245, Tennessee -310 | Tennessee Moneyline | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Mississippi State +7.5 (-105), Tennessee -7.5 (-115) | Mississippi State +7.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 63.5 (-115), Under 63.5 (-105) | Over 63.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers 135% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 63.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Tennessee Volunteers at 135% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 54.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Mississippi State covering the +7.5 spread for highest expected value given sharp money backing, home advantage, and Tennesseeβs road questions despite being favorite.
Predicted Score: Tennessee 35 – Mississippi State 28