Match Analysis: Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Northern Illinois Huskies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
Game Overview
Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-0) host Northern Illinois Huskies (1-1) in a non-conference matchup. The Bulldogs have a strong start to the season, while the Huskies have struggled recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mississippi State is undefeated at 3-0 with a powerful offense and solid defense, showing strong ATS (Against The Spread) form (6-1 ATS last 7), despite recent SU struggles overall. Northern Illinois is 1-1, with a poor recent SU record (1-7 in last 8 games) and weaker offensive production.
- No recent head-to-head data available; however, historical comparisons show Mississippi State generally stronger.
- No major injuries reported for either team that would significantly affect starters or key positions.
- Mississippi State plays at home, providing significant home-field advantage. Weather conditions forecasted to be favorable with no impact on play style.
- Mississippi State aims to maintain undefeated status before SEC conference play, increasing motivation. Northern Illinois looks to upset a ranked opponent, but motivation is tempered by past performance and road disadvantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs: -1800, Northern Illinois Huskies: +1000 | Mississippi State Bulldogs | β β β β β 90% |
Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs -21: -108, Northern Illinois Huskies +21: -112 | Mississippi State Bulldogs -21 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 49.5: -112, Under 49.5: -108 | Under 49.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mississippi State to win convincingly, covering the 21-point spread with a final score around 35-14, under 49.5 in total points likely due to NIU's weak offense and Mississippi State's control.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State Bulldogs 35 – Northern Illinois Huskies 14