Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Sam Houston State Bearkats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Johnny 'Red' Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee
Game Overview
This CUSA Conference matchup features two struggling FBS programs competing in their penultimate regular season game. Middle Tennessee (1-9, 0-6 CUSA) hosts Sam Houston (2-8, 1-5 CUSA) in a critical contest for both teams seeking to build momentum heading into the final week. Sam Houston enters the game riding a three-game winning streak (defeating Oregon State 21-17 and Delaware 26-23), while Middle Tennessee is seeking to end a prolonged losing streak. The oddsmakers favor Middle Tennessee at home despite comparable overall records, suggesting confidence in MTSU's ability to perform in their home stadium.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sam Houston has demonstrated significant momentum in recent weeks with consecutive wins, showcasing improved turnover management with a +5 turnover margin in their last two victories. However, their overall season record of 2-8 reflects significant inconsistency. Middle Tennessee's 1-9 record is marginally worse, with their single conference win being against Jacksonville State (24-21). Both teams rank among the conference's weakest performers this season. Sam Houston has shown resilience against ranked opponents, losing to #8 Texas 55-0, while Middle Tennessee's losses have been competitive (Wisconsin 42-10, Marshall 42-28, Delaware 31-28). Sam Houston's three November wins represent a 7-2 November record across three FBS seasons, indicating the Bearkats perform better in late-season games.
- This is only the fourth meeting between these programs, with Sam Houston leading the all-time series 2-1. Their most recent matchup occurred in 2023 when Sam Houston overcame a fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Middle Tennessee 23-20. This historical advantage slightly favors Sam Houston, though the series is competitive.
- No specific injury information is available in the provided data for either team. This represents a significant analytical gap, as injuries to key players could substantially impact team performance.
- Sam Houston is completing their final road trip of the 2025 season, which may affect player fatigue and focus. Middle Tennessee plays at home, a traditional advantage in college football. Neither team has postseason implications at this stage, potentially reducing motivation compared to playoff-contending programs. The game time has multiple references (3 PM, 8 PM EST), suggesting possible scheduling adjustments.
- Sam Houston is seeking a third consecutive win to build momentum and finish the season strong, which aligns with their historical November success. Middle Tennessee is searching for a second conference win and first home conference victory to salvage their season. Both teams are essentially playing for pride and program positioning at this stage of the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | MTSU -258 / SHSU +210 | Sam Houston State Bearkats to WIN | โ โ โ โโ 52% |
| Spread | MTSU -7 (-108) / SHSU +7 (-112) | Sam Houston +7 COVER | โ โ โ โโ 54% |
| Over/under | Over 54.5 (-110) / Under 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 | โ โ โ โโ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 124% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 54.5 -1% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at 124% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 58.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite oddsmakers favoring Middle Tennessee, Sam Houston's recent form and historical advantage in the series present compelling value. The Bearkats' three-game winning streak, improved turnover management, and strong November track record (7-2 over three seasons) suggest they are the more confident team entering this matchup. However, Middle Tennessee's home-field advantage and slightly better recent competitive losses temper this assessment. The predictive model slightly favors Sam Houston to cover the spread given their momentum and series history, though Middle Tennessee remains a viable home underdog play.
Predicted Score: Middle Tennessee 27, Sam Houston 24