Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Missouri State Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-08
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee
Game Overview
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4) host the Missouri State Bears (2-3) in a Conference USA matchup. Both teams are coming off losses, with Missouri State favored slightly on the road. The game is expected to be competitive with a moderately high-scoring projection around 50 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State holds a slight edge with a 2-3 record and better passing offense and defense metrics. Middle Tennessee has struggled to perform with a 1-4 record, losing two in a row and 0-2 at home.
- Only one previous meeting in 1986, won by Middle Tennessee decisively (42-19), offering little recent relevance.
- No specific recent critical injuries reported for either team affecting core starters.
- Home crowd attendance may be lower than usual due to weeknight scheduling, reducing typical home field advantage for Middle Tennessee.
- Missouri State looks to stop a losing trend after a close loss to Western Kentucky; Middle Tennessee faces pressure after consecutive defeats and poor home form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: +108, Missouri State Bears: -126 | Missouri State Bears | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +2.5: -110, Missouri State Bears -2.5: -110 | Missouri State Bears -2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 49.5: -110, Under 49.5: -110 | Over 49.5 points | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Missouri State Bears 11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 49.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Missouri State Bears at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Missouri State Bears to win. Spread: Missouri State -2.5. Over/Under: Over 49.5 points.
Predicted Score: Missouri State Bears 27 – Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 23