Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Marshall Thundering Herd – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Johnny 'Red' Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
Game Overview
The matchup features Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders hosting the Marshall Thundering Herd at Johnny 'Red' Floyd Stadium. Both teams enter with subpar starts to their 2025 campaigns โ Middle Tennessee holds a 1-2 record with a recent comeback win, while Marshall is 1-2 overall, having won once after two losses. The stakes are significant as both seek momentum and conference traction in this early season contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Middle Tennessee recently rallied for a comeback win after starting 0-2, indicating improving form and momentum at home. Their defense has been highlighted by Juwon Gaston, named CUSA Defensive Player of the Week. Marshall has struggled on the road with a 0-1 away record and 1-2 overall, but demonstrated capability with a decisive home win in Week 3. Both offenses have shown inconsistencies, as reflected in their respective scores in past games.
- Recent direct matchup history is limited for this season; however, the teams have traditionally been competitive, given conference alignments. No detailed 2025 head-to-head results are available prior to this game, making current form and home advantage key indicators.
- Specific injury reports are unavailable from the current dataset; however, no major absences have been flagged for either team in recent news.
- Game-day conditions including home crowd advantage for Middle Tennessee at Johnny 'Red' Floyd Stadium and the motivation of a homecoming game could influence the Blue Raiders positively. Travel fatigue might marginally affect Marshall headed into this away game.
- Middle Tennessee, riding the momentum from a recent comeback win and honored defensive performance, is highly motivated to capitalize on homecoming energy. Marshall seeks to halt a modest losing streak and build on their Week 3 success to stabilize their season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marshall Thundering Herd: -135, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 114 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders win | โ โ โ โโ 62% |
| Spread | Marshall Thundering Herd: -2.5 -112, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: +2.5 -108 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5: -115, Under 46.5: -105 | Under 46.5 | โ โ โ โโ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 5% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The analysis favors Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to edge out Marshall in a competitive match, leveraging home field advantage and rising defensive strength.
Predicted Score: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 24 – 21 Marshall Thundering Herd