Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks Prediction
NCAAF in American Football
Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-29
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tennessee
Game Overview
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-6, 0-2 CUSA) will host the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-3, 3-0 CUSA) in a Conference USA matchup. Jacksonville State is currently the stronger team, favored by around 6 points, with a better overall record and conference standing. The Blue Raiders have struggled this season with a 1-6 record, while the Gamecocks have shown solid offensive and defensive metrics especially in rushing, ranking in the top 3 nationally in rushing yards. The over/under is set at 54.5 points, reflecting moderately high scoring expectations.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jacksonville State has a strong rushing offense ranking 3rd nationally with 276 yards per game and scores about 30.7 points per game, while Middle Tennessee ranks poorly with a 1-6 record and has lost its last four games. Jacksonville State also has a 3-0 conference record, indicating strong performance in CUSA play. Middle Tennessee has struggled defensively, allowing significant rushing yards and points.
- No recent direct head-to-head history is explicitly detailed, but Middle Tennessee owns a historical home record with strong performance generally. This will be the first time they've met since Jacksonville State joined CUSA and the 2025 season.
- There is no specific information on injuries available for either team in the current sources.
- The game is played at Middle Tennessee’s home stadium, which could provide a slight home-field advantage despite their poor record. Weather or other disrupting external factors are not provided and presumably standard for late October in Tennessee.
- Jacksonville State is motivated to maintain conference dominance with a 3-0 record while Middle Tennessee is looking to avoid further losses at home to improve their poor record (1-6). Jacksonville State has edge as they are coming off more recent wins and better season momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks: -220, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 184 | Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks: -5.5 -115, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 5.5 -105 | Jacksonville State to cover -5.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 54.5 -110, Under: 54.5 -110 | Over 54.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 54.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 54.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville State Gamecocks are predicted to win, covering the spread of -5.5 points with strong confidence due to superior rushing offense, better recent form and better conference performance.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 34 – Middle Tennessee 24