Match Analysis: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Austin Peay Governors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-30
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
Game Overview
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders host Austin Peay Governors at home where the Blue Raiders are favored. Both teams start the season 0-0. Middle Tennessee has a stronger squad on paper and more stable offensive production, while Austin Peay is integrating new defensive leadership and has lost key skill position players.
Key Factors to Consider
- Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in recent non-conference home games, indicating some volatility, but they have a more experienced roster than Austin Peay. Austin Peay's offense relies on returning QB Austin Smith but lacks depth in skill positions. The Governors are adjusting to a new defensive coordinator and lost top tacklers, resulting in an inexperienced defense.
- Recent H2H data is limited, but Middle Tennessee typically outperforms Austin Peay, especially at home, with a notable home-field advantage at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
- No significant reported injuries to key starters on either side. Austin Peay lost some top defensive tacklers from last season but retains defensive playmaker Ellis Ellis Jr.
- Game played in Murfreesboro under warm, clear conditions with no rain and low wind, favorable for offensive execution. The venue gives Middle Tennessee an edge.
- Middle Tennessee enters the season with higher expectations and motivation to assert dominance at home. Austin Peay looks to build on a playoff appearance last year but faces challenges due to roster turnover and new defensive staff.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Middle Tennessee -310, Austin Peay +245 | Middle Tennessee | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Middle Tennessee -9.5 -110, Austin Peay +9.5 -110 | Middle Tennessee -9.5 | β β β β β 71% |
Over/under | Over 53.5 -110, Under 53.5 -110 | Over 53.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 53.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 53.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to win straight up, cover the -9.5 spread, and the game to go over 53.5 points.
Predicted Score: Middle Tennessee 34 – Austin Peay 20