Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 7, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Game Overview
An AAC showdown with major College Football Playoff implications for the Group of Five. Memphis is ranked No. 25, holds an 8-1 record, and has won four straight at home. Tulane is 6-2, 3-1 in conference, and must rebound from a lopsided road loss to UTSA. The Tigers are 3.5-point favorites, with a tight race atop the American Conference standings at stake.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis has been dominant at home, winning four straight, and is coming off a convincing road win at Rice. Tulane's offense has regressed from last year and was exposed defensively by UTSA. Memphis is ranked No. 25 nationally, while Tulane is unranked.
- Memphis won the last meeting 34-24 at Tulane, bringing the last six matchups to 3-3. However, Memphis has more momentum currently.
- No major injury reports from either team are available in the available data. Assume both squads are near full strength.
- Memphis enjoys a strong home-field advantage, outscoring opponents by an average of 14 points at home this season. Tulane is on the road after a tough loss and faces potential distractions from coaching rumors.
- Memphis is fighting for a shot at the College Football Playoff as the Group of Five's top-ranked team. Tulane is motivated to keep pace in the AAC race, but their head coach is rumored for open jobs, potentially impacting focus.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis -175, Tulane +145 | Memphis | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Memphis -3.5 -110, Tulane +3.5 -110 | Memphis -3.5 | β β β ββ 67% |
| Over/under | Over 53.5 -115, Under 53.5 -105 | Under 53.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 53.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 53.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis leans on their home field, superior form, and motivation for a playoff bid to win and cover, while Tulane's offense struggles to keep pace. The total points may go under, based on Tulane's offensive decline and Memphis' stingy home defense.
Predicted Score: Memphis 31, Tulane 24