Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Game Overview
This American Athletic Conference (AAC) matchup features the Memphis Tigers (8-3, 4-3 AAC) hosting the Navy Midshipmen (8-2, 6-1 AAC) on Thursday, November 27, 2025. Both teams are strong contenders, with Memphis favored by the bookmakers. The game is set for a prime-time slot on ESPN, with high stakes for conference standings and postseason implications.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis has shown consistent performance at home, with an 8-3-0 ATS record and an average point total of 56.9 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Their implied total is 35.2 points per game at home. Navy, while strong overall (8-2), has struggled with the spread, covering only 3 of 10 games this season. Their average point total is 56.8, with an implied total of 37.5 at home and 36.3 on the road. Memphis recently lost to East Carolina 31-27, while Navy narrowly defeated South Florida 41-38, indicating both teams are capable of high-scoring games.
- In the last four meetings, Memphis has won three, outscoring Navy by 34 points. The series is even against the spread (2-2), but the over has hit in three of the last four matchups. This suggests a competitive but high-scoring rivalry.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is played at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, where Memphis has a strong home advantage. Weather is expected to be clear with no rain, which favors an open, high-scoring game. The venue and conditions are conducive to offensive play.
- Both teams are motivated to secure a strong finish in the AAC and improve their postseason prospects. Memphis is aiming to solidify its position as a top contender, while Navy seeks to challenge for the conference title.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers: -205, Navy Midshipmen: 170 | Memphis Tigers | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers: -5.5, Navy Midshipmen: 5.5 | Memphis Tigers -5.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 58.5, Under: 58.5 | Over | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 58.5 26% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 58.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis is favored to win this game, with a strong home record and recent form. The spread and over/under suggest a close, high-scoring contest. The Tigers are expected to cover the spread and the game is likely to go over the total.
Predicted Score: Memphis 34, Navy 25