Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Game Overview
The Memphis Tigers, undefeated at 3-0, face the Arkansas Razorbacks, currently 2-1, in a key NCAAF matchup with Arkansas favored by 7.5 points. Memphis boasts a strong defense and a potent offense, while Arkansas has struggled at times defensively but has home advantage and early public support from bettors.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis is 3-0 and undefeated against the spread (ATS), with a top-30 offense and a suffocating defense allowing just 11 points per game. Arkansas is 2-1 but only 1-2 ATS and recently allowed 475 yards to Ole Miss's backup QB, signaling defensive vulnerability.
- Recent form favors Memphis, especially ATS, with Memphis showing a significant EPA edge on passing offense and Arkansas ranked poorly (118th) against the rush, enabling Memphis to move the ball effectively.
- No major injuries to key starters reported for either team, maintaining strength on both sides of the ball.
- Game held at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium with clear weather, around 84°F, minimal rain and moderate wind, neutralizing weather impact. Sharp money movement has shifted line towards Memphis despite public majority on Arkansas.
- Memphis seeks to maintain their undefeated record and assert dominance early in the season, while Arkansas looks to solidify their rank following an uneven start, giving Memphis a psychological edge as underdog with sharp backing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks: -275, Memphis Tigers: +220 | Arkansas Razorbacks | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks: -7.5 -110, Memphis Tigers: +7.5 -110 | Memphis Tigers +7.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | Over: 61.5 -115, Under: 61.5 -105 | Under 61.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Memphis Tigers -15% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 61.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 61.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis to cover the spread (+7.5), with a likely lower scoring game under the total, but Arkansas favored on moneyline given public and initial oddsmaker bias.
Predicted Score: Arkansas Razorbacks 28 – Memphis Tigers 23