Match Analysis: Louisville Cardinals vs California Golden Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville
Game Overview
No.16 Louisville Cardinals (7-1) host California Golden Bears (5-4) in an ACC conference matchup. Louisville is a heavy favorite with an 18.5-point spread, reflecting their dominant season and stronger performance in ACC play.
Key Factors to Consider
- Louisville is 7-1 overall and 4-1 in ACC, showing strong recent form. Cal is 5-4 and 2-3 in ACC, having struggled on the road and with consistency. Louisville has won 4 of its last 5 and is a high-ranked top 20 team.
- Recent head-to-head results favor Louisville, with the higher-ranked Cardinals typically dominating these matchups. No significant disruptions to historical trend noted.
- No major injuries reported for Louisville impacting starters. California has no notable injury setbacks reported, though lower confidence in depth compared to Louisville.
- Game played in Louisville at home for Cardinals with clear weather, 55Β°F, no rain and light wind, providing ideal conditions for Louisville's favored high-tempo offense.
- Louisville aims to maintain top-20 ranking and boost ACC standing ahead of potential bowl invitations; California motivated to upset but considered significant underdog.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -1200, away: +750 | Louisville Cardinals | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Louisville: -18.5 -110, California: +18.5 -110 | Louisville Cardinals -18.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 49.5 -110, Under: 49.5 -110 | Under 49.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louisville Cardinals to win on the moneyline and cover the -18.5 spread, with the game going under 49.5 points total.
Predicted Score: Louisville Cardinals 35 – California Golden Bears 14