Match Analysis: Louisville Cardinals vs Bowling Green Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
Game Overview
The Louisville Cardinals (2-0) host the Bowling Green Falcons (2-1) with Louisville as overwhelming favorites. Louisville has stronger recent form, a more favorable schedule, and dominates key statistical matchups, while Bowling Green features a slower pace and lower offensive efficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Louisville is undefeated with a 2-0 record, coming off a solid 28-14 win over James Madison. Bowling Green is 2-1, last securing a 23-13 win against Liberty. Louisville shows better efficiency on both sides, especially rushing defense, where Bowling Green struggles.
- Recent meetings favor Louisville, with predictive models projecting Louisville to win comfortably. No recent data indicates Bowling Green has posed a consistent threat to Louisville.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting major starters or key contributors as of this analysis.
- Louisville is playing at home, which adds to their advantage. Bowling Green's slower tempo and inefficiency against rushing defenses align with Louisvilleβs strengths. No adverse weather or other external factors are expected to influence the game.
- Louisville, undefeated and in a Power Five conference, has high motivation to maintain dominance, whereas Bowling Green is motivated as underdog but limited by talent disparity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -4500, away: +1600 | Louisville Cardinals (-4500) | β β β β β 88% |
Spread | home: -120, away: -102 | Louisville Cardinals -26.5 (-120) | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | over: -115, under: -105 | Under 52.5 (-105) | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 52.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louisville to win moneyline and cover the -26.5 spread, with the game scoring under the 52.5 points total.
Predicted Score: Louisville 31, Bowling Green 13