Match Analysis: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Cajun Field
Game Overview
Sun Belt Conference clash between two struggling teams: Texas State Bobcats (3-5, 0-4 conf) and Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (3-6, 2-3 conf). Both teams are outside the championship picture but eager for a win to salvage their seasons.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are inconsistent, but Texas State enters on a four-game skid, including a heavy 52-20 home loss to James Madison, while Louisiana is coming off a road win at South Alabama. Louisiana has a slightly better conference record, but both have allowed over 30 points per game defensively. Texas State averages 34.1 ppg (offense) and allows 33.9 ppg; Louisiana averages 24.3 ppg and allows a similar amount[3].
- Louisiana has dominated the series, winning the last ten matchupsβincluding the last meeting 23-17[1][4]. Texas State has never beaten Louisiana in the modern era.
- No major injury updates found. Assume both teams at close to full strength.
- Cajun Field home crowd could provide a slight edge, but this is not a marquee matchup in terms of atmosphere. Weather and other external factors appear neutral.
- Texas State is winless in the Sun Belt and desperate to avoid a fifth straight loss. However, Louisiana has more recent momentum and extra incentive for a rare sweep over an intra-division rival.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana +120 / Texas State -142 | Louisiana (ML) | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Louisiana +2.5 (-105) / Texas State -2.5 (-115) | Louisiana +2.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
| Over/under | Over 63.5 (-108) / Under 63.5 (-112) | Under 63.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 63.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State is the betting favorite on the road, but Louisianaβs head-to-head dominance, recent form, and home field suggest hidden value on the Raginβ Cajuns +2.5 and on the moneyline. The over/under is a toss-up, given both teamsβ porous defenses and inconsistent offenses.
Predicted Score: Louisiana 27, Texas State 24